Geopolitics

Gate News Report, March 10, Iran's Army announced that in retaliation for attacks on Iranian oil facilities, its drones attacked a refinery and fuel storage facilities in Haifa, Israel. Additionally, Iran has launched a new round of missile strikes against Israel. According to Polymarket data, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by the end of this month is now reported at 34%.

CME data from March 10th indicates that due to Middle East geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices triggering inflation risks, the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has weakened. Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March is only 2.6%, while the probability of holding rates steady is as high as 97.4%. It is expected that by April, the Federal Reserve will maintain steady rates with an 85.3% probability.

Gate News Report, March 10th, Russian expert Ikbal Guliyev stated that in the coming days, if the G7 makes a positive decision to release additional reserves, oil prices (international crude oil futures prices) could drop to $100 per barrel. However, the market will then face geopolitical risks again, and actual supply will experience shortages. Guliyev believes that if the supply shortage persists long-term, oil prices could reach $150-160 per barrel.

CRCL stock price rose about 10% on March 9, with a total increase of 87.18% over the past month. Mizuho Bank analysts pointed out that this surge was driven by Middle East geopolitical conflicts leading to high oil prices, which boosted inflation expectations and increased the earnings of stablecoin issuers. Another analysis suggests that the stock price increase was mainly due to short covering. Valuation analysis indicates that CRCL's current stock price is above its intrinsic value, posing a risk of overvaluation.

Since the outbreak of the Iran war, Bitcoin prices have rebounded, rising approximately 5.4% in total; meanwhile, the Dubai real estate market has declined by 18.1% due to missile attacks and foreign capital withdrawals. High-net-worth investors are fleeing, coupled with expectations of a surge in future supply, leading to a general decline in housing prices. Overall, the war is reshaping regional risks and has a profound impact on global asset allocation.

International oil price fluctuations have sparked heated discussions in the crypto community, focusing on the impact of oil prices on Bitcoin trends. Analysts believe that geopolitical risks and inflation pressures have made oil a focal point, with some traders expressing concern about Bitcoin's safe-haven properties, though doubts remain. Currently, market interest in altcoins is subdued, with main attention on macroeconomic trends and commodity movements.

UK Reform Party leader Nigel Farage invested £260,000 in Bitcoin financial company Stack BTC to promote the development of the UK's crypto industry. He believes digital currencies will have a significant impact on the future financial system. This investment is seen as a mimic of the US collaboration model with the crypto industry. Despite increased market volatility, Stack BTC's stock price has risen approximately 83%, demonstrating its strong performance.

The Russian "All-Russian People's Front" warns that scammers are forging donation documents to induce supporters of Iran to donate cryptocurrencies, claiming that the funds will be used to aid Ukrainian soldiers. The organization reiterates that all crypto fundraising activities in its name are scams, and legitimate donations can only be made through official website bank transfers. Meanwhile, Russian security agencies are stepping up efforts to combat related criminal activities. Cryptocurrencies are becoming increasingly important in the political and military funding flows in the Middle East, posing new security challenges for users.

China strengthens its regulatory policies on cryptocurrencies, reaffirming a comprehensive ban on RMB-pegged stablecoins and classifying most RWA tokenization activities as illegal. The market response is muted, indicating that investors have adapted to this change. The policy's first mention of stablecoins may signal future regulatory reforms, but implementation will still take time. Global digital asset trading could develop into a USD-denominated system, with liquidity being a key factor. Future regulatory frameworks will influence the global market landscape.

Circle's stock price surged 87% in a single month due to the impact of the US-Iran conflict. Analysts have pointed out that its stock is overvalued, and the discounted cash flow model shows an intrinsic value of $42.25. The current stock price of $111.84 is 164.7% higher. The price-to-sales ratio also emphasizes that the stock is overvalued, indicating a high risk of overestimation.

As the Iran situation escalates and oil prices rise, global stock markets come under pressure, but Bitcoin defies the trend with an approximately 4% increase, reaching $70,000. Large institutions continue to buy through OTC trading, with over $700 million in funds flowing into Bitcoin-related ETFs, supporting market sentiment. Major holders slightly increase their holdings, indicating institutional and corporate optimism about Bitcoin, becoming an important force in its price stability.

China issues a ban on unauthorized Renminbi-pegged stablecoins and considers RWA tokenization activities illegal, aiming to prevent industry expansion. Analysts believe that this ban cannot stop the global demand for USD stablecoins, and Hong Kong's stablecoin licensing may also present opportunities for Chinese-funded banks, indicating a subtle regulatory adjustment. Overall, China's measures are targeted at the domestic market rather than an obstacle to global RWA development.

Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Central Bank of Russia, has declared that first-wave banks were finalizing their preparations to support the digital ruble on day one. She also clarified that the bank was on schedule for the launch expected by September. Central Banks Reinforce Preparations

Gate News Report, March 10 — According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran's Foreign Minister publicly stated that negotiations with the United States are unlikely.

Affected by Iran's geopolitical conflicts, Dubai's financial market real estate index has declined approximately 20% over the past five trading days, erasing the gains made in early 2025. Despite strong performance in 2024 and 2023, geopolitical tensions have led to a rapid decline. Dubai's real estate transaction volume is expected to hit a new record high in 2025.

Deutsche Bank's Head of Research Jim Reid pointed out that the current global energy market trend is similar to that before the second oil crisis in the 1970s, especially in the 4-5 years following the inflation surge. However, the key difference between the two is that the high inflation expectations in the 1970s led central banks to adopt aggressive monetary tightening, whereas today's long-term inflation expectations remain stable.

South Korea's National Tax Service accidentally leaked cryptocurrency seed phrases, leading to assets worth approximately $4.8 million being stolen. The first thief surrendered and returned the assets, but they were stolen again by others. Experts criticized the National Tax Service for not taking necessary protective measures, and authorities admitted the mistake and promised to strengthen security systems.

On March 10th, Bitcoin broke through $70,000 during the East Asian trading session, completing a recovery after the weekend sell-off. As volatility in the energy markets eased, selling pressure on risk assets diminished. Market data shows that institutional capital inflows continue to support Bitcoin, investor sentiment is improving, and short-term upside potential is increasing.

Goldman Sachs Chief China Equity Strategist Liu Jinjin believes that despite market volatility, the "overweight" rating on the Chinese stock market remains unchanged. He points out that Middle Eastern geopolitical issues, energy prices, and artificial intelligence technology are the main factors influencing investor sentiment. The risk-reward ratio of A-shares is higher, and investors are advised to focus on structural themes to achieve excess returns.