Macroeconomics

Gate News reported that on March 15, the International Energy Agency (IEA, an international organization responsible for coordinating energy policies among member states) stated that oil from the IEA's emergency reserves will soon begin flowing into global markets. Inventory from Asian and Oceanian countries will be immediately available for use, while inventory from European and American countries will be available by the end of March.

Gate News reported that on March 15, U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated in an interview with ABC News that the Iran conflict will end "in the coming weeks," after which oil supply will recover and energy prices will decline.

Since September 2025, the DeFi market has entered a "interest rate winter," with the annualized deposit yields of mainstream stablecoins dropping to lows, and supply and demand imbalances causing excess liquidity. As borrowing demand declines, stablecoin lending rates have also decreased, and the reduced risk appetite in the crypto market has led investors to shift toward more stable assets. Some protocols, such as Sky, offer stable returns through real-world assets, but the overall trend still indicates a period of adjustment and structural reform in DeFi.

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee stated in an interview that rising oil prices are beneficial for the U.S. stock market, and investors tend to hold growth stocks, particularly the Magnificent 7. He believes the U.S. stock market may be forming a bottom and pointed out that current private credit issues will not lead to systemic risk.

The U.S. Department of Energy issued a solicitation on March 15, planning to allocate 86 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stabilize the market and replenish reserves. Over the next year, about 200 million barrels will be added to maintain energy security. The current reserve level is 415.4 million barrels.

Gate News reports that on March 15, according to Caixin.com, the 2026 FIFA World Cup, set to begin in June, may become the World Cup with the highest "AI concentration" ever. Industry insiders estimate that during the World Cup period, global daily Token consumption could reach approximately 5.35 quadrillion, with World Cup-related Token consumption accounting for about 1.6 quadrillion. In comparison, global Token consumption at the beginning of this year was approximately 2 trillion per day.

JPMorgan Chase data shows that the strategic petroleum reserves released by the G7 amount to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day, which is unable to bridge the 16 million barrel supply gap and can only fill 7.5%. While emergency reserves can buy time, they cannot solve the fundamental problem.

Gate News reported that on March 13, Bank of America stated that the Federal Reserve will have to address the supply shock from soaring oil prices. In the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released ahead of the March Federal Reserve meeting, overall and core inflation forecasts are likely to be revised upward. The Bank of America report points out that if long-term growth expectations are also revised upward, the median dot plot for long-term interest rates could move slightly higher. In this case, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may acknowledge stagflation risks while emphasizing a wait-and-see approach.

On March 13, the United States released economic data: the March one-year inflation rate expectation was 3.4%, lower than the expected 3.7%; January JOLTs job openings were 6.946 million, higher than the expected 6.7 million; the March consumer confidence index preliminary reading was 55.5, also higher than the expected 55.

U.S. Trade Representative Grier is calling on companies seeking refunds of $170 billion in tariffs following the Supreme Court's overturn to use the reimbursements for employee bonuses or salary increases, emphasizing that such action would drive manufacturing reshoring and correct trade imbalances. Currently, the refund and corporate return mechanisms remain controversial.

Gate News reported that on March 13, according to sources, Saudi Arabia will reduce oil production by at least 2 million barrels per day, down to approximately 8 million barrels per day.

The US January Core PCE inflation rate came in at 3.1% year-over-year, remaining elevated and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer, which could create macroeconomic pressure on the crypto market. Both services and goods prices increased, indicating that sticky inflation concerns remain unresolved. Analysts point out that this increase may be influenced by seasonal factors, but the market should remain vigilant against short-term volatility risks.

Gate News reported that on March 13, American financial website investinglive stated that the latest report shows core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve) has recorded a month-over-month increase of 0.4% for two consecutive months. The overall data basically aligns with expectations. If similar data continues for several more months, the inflation rate will rapidly approach 2%, and these data will still be factored into year-over-year calculations over the next 10 months. Additionally, an energy price shock is about to arrive.