Monetary Policy

Regulators equalize capital rules for tokenized securities. Permissionless and permissioned blockchains treated the same. Tokenized securities qualify as financial collateral. US banking agencies have clarified that tokenized securities should be treated similarly to the capital treatment

Gate News Announcement, March 9, US Bank stated in its latest report that the February CPI report is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's short-term policy stance. The bank expects the February CPI report to continue showing moderate growth in consumer prices, with both the overall CPI and core CPI expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month.

Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer Michael Wilson stated that the S&P 500 correction is nearing its end, and profit growth and market breadth are expected to improve over the next 6-12 months. He believes that oil prices and the dollar's movement will influence market volatility, and short-term weakness could present buying opportunities, especially in the financial, industrial, and small-cap sectors.

On March 9th, WTI crude oil prices rose to $119 per barrel, reaching a new high since 2022. Due to threats from Iran, global crude oil supply losses approached 20 million barrels. Bitcoin remained at $67,000, with no signs of panic selling. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged is approximately 99%.

Ed Yardeni predicts a 35% crash in U.S. and crypto stocks amid escalating tensions in the U.S.-Iran war, with rising oil prices and changing investor sentiment. Crypto firms are adjusting strategies as the economic outlook becomes more uncertain.

According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, by the end of 2025, job vacancies in the U.S. finance and insurance industry will drop to 134,000, a 13-year low, down 75% from 2022. Analysts warn that more layoffs may occur, while the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that employment unexpectedly decreased in February, but financial activities defied the trend by adding 10,000 net jobs, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy.

The Federal Reserve and other agencies have issued new guidelines for the banking industry, requiring tokenized securities to follow the same regulatory capital standards as traditional securities, emphasizing that technological form does not affect the method of capital calculation. This reflects regulatory authorities' focus on the legal nature and risk assessment of financial assets, demonstrating the gradual integration of banks and blockchain finance, which helps banks evaluate the risks and costs of tokenization businesses.

On March 9th, as the "Epic Rage Action" escalated, the global energy markets experienced intense volatility, with oil prices soaring to $116 at one point, raising concerns about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump predicted that oil prices would fall back, but gasoline prices have already risen to $3.45. The stock and cryptocurrency markets declined sharply, and investors should pay attention to the impact of geopolitical events on the markets and future monetary policies.

Gate News Report, March 9th, traders have increased their expectations of the European Central Bank's rate hike, now fully expecting the ECB to raise interest rates twice by 2026.

Pepperstone Senior Research Strategist Michael Brown stated that the current market trend is contrary to Trump's policy goals, with rising oil prices, falling stock markets, a strengthening dollar, and rising interest rates. The Federal Reserve is facing a policy dilemma.

Former CFTC Chairman Giancarlo pointed out that the uncertainty in cryptocurrency regulation has a much greater impact on the banking industry than on the crypto sector. Banks, due to their strict regulatory and legal obligations, cannot make large-scale investments in this area. He warned that if the bill fails to pass, American banks may fall behind in digital financial transformation, facing structural challenges that could affect their global competitiveness. The core controversy of the bill involves stablecoin yields and regulatory jurisdiction. If it fails, regulatory guidance may only provide temporary solutions.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has proposed new measures under the "Genius Act" to combat cryptocurrency crimes, with a focus on monitoring illegal digital asset activities, especially the abuse of stablecoins. The Treasury recommends adopting AI-driven blockchain monitoring tools and bringing major stablecoins into a strict compliance framework to reduce criminal risks and enhance transparency. At the same time, the report shows that North Korean hackers are stealing cryptocurrencies severely, and global online scams are increasing, prompting updates to the regulatory framework.

The U.S. February employment report showed an unexpected loss of 92,000 jobs, with financial sector vacancies dropping to the lowest level in 13 years, indicating structural contraction. Although financial activities added 10,000 jobs, sectors like healthcare and information industries experienced significant layoffs. Weak labor market data may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, creating a dual impact on the crypto market.

Debate over the Federal Reserve's digital currency (CBDC) in the U.S. Congress intensifies, with Republican lawmakers pushing for a permanent ban on its development and warning that this move could impact the passage of housing legislation. Representative Michael Cloud and his colleagues believe that CBDC could lead to increased monitoring of citizens' financial activities, threatening personal economic freedom. The financial sector is divided on this issue, and many countries worldwide are also accelerating their CBDC projects.

In the latest podcast, investor Pompliano and researcher Visser discuss the complexities of the global financial markets, including interest rate policies, the risks of private credit, and the impact of AI on asset valuation. The two believe that economic signals are chaotic, prompting investors to re-evaluate traditional investment strategies, and they explore how AI is transforming industries and the future trends in portfolio allocation.

The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a rise in international oil prices, while Bitcoin prices remain relatively stable, staying around $67,000. The US stock market has shown resilience, with increased correlation to Bitcoin, while Asian markets are more affected. As institutional funds enter the crypto market, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a risk asset. Additionally, although the US has a high level of energy independence, rising oil prices may still impact inflation through consumer spending.

Former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo believes that American banks are unable to develop cryptocurrency businesses due to unclear regulations, but this argument requires multiple premises. Giancarlo mentioned the competitive pressure from Asia and Europe and the progress of the CLARITY Act, pointing out that regulatory uncertainty is not the only obstacle. Additionally, his claim needs to meet conditions such as the necessity for banks to enter the crypto market, which currently lacks sufficient evidence to support.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury recently acknowledged for the first time in a report the legitimate privacy uses of cryptocurrency mixers and suggested that Congress establish a "Freezing Law" to temporarily freeze suspicious digital assets. The report states that legitimate users can utilize these tools to protect financial privacy, but also expresses concerns about money laundering risks associated with non-custodial mixers. The debate over privacy issues continues, and the legal responsibilities of open-source tool developers remain unclear.

Former CFTC Chairman Giancarlo stated that a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies is crucial for the U.S. banking system. The lack of regulation could cause the U.S. to fall behind Asia and Europe in financial innovation. He pointed out that banks find it difficult to make large-scale investments in blockchain technology in an uncertain legal environment and warned that the U.S. might be forced to follow global digital financial trends. Even if the Crypto Market Structure Act does not pass, regulatory agencies may still implement temporary policies, but these cannot replace a stable legislative framework.

Middle Eastern geopolitical risks have intensified, leading to a sharp decline in Asian stock markets, a surge in energy prices, and crude oil surpassing $110. Despite market concerns, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin remain stable. Oil prices are expected to continue rising, but some traders anticipate a correction. The Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations remain stable, and future oil price increases could impact inflation.