美联储预计下周维持利率在 3.50%-3.75% 不变，伊朗战争推高通胀压力

Oxford Economics: Expects Bank of Japan to Delay Rate Hike from June to July

Oxford Economics expects the Bank of Japan to postpone its rate hike timeline from June to July, with continued rate increases through 2027. Due to rising energy costs, inflation will re-accelerate, with core CPI not expected to return to 2% until the second quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, real GDP growth forecasts have been downgraded to 0.3%.

US National Debt Breaks $39 Trillion, Sets New Record as Interest Payments Consume Fiscal Space

US national debt surpassed $39 trillion in early March, reigniting discussions on fiscal stability. Budget deficits and large-scale spending programs have accelerated debt expansion, causing government interest expenses to compress investment space. This situation has sparked market interest in assets like Bitcoin, though short-term movements are not necessarily stable. Policymakers face choices between cutting spending, raising taxes, or continued borrowing, with structural reforms viewed as a long-term solution, though implementation remains challenging.

Trump Issues Stern Warning to Iran: Strike on Qatar's Oil and Gas Assets Will Trigger Global Energy Crisis if New Attack Occurs

US President Trump warns that if Iran continues attacking Qatar's energy facilities, he will strike its South Pars gas field. Iranian missile attacks on Qatar's critical infrastructure have triggered market concerns, driving up oil prices, with geopolitical risks affecting global energy supply. Multiple countries have called for de-escalation of the situation.

Gold and Bitcoin decline simultaneously by 3.6% and 4.6%, respectively, as the global market faces stagflation shocks.

On March 19, escalating geopolitical conflicts and hawkish Federal Reserve policies exposed global markets to stagflation pressures driven by oil. Rising oil prices, coupled with declining equities and metals, also impacted cryptocurrencies. Macroeconomic dynamics revealed intensifying energy tensions and widespread risk-averse sentiment across markets.

U.S. National Debt Breaks $39 Trillion for First Time, 30-Year Yield Surges Near 4.9%; Japan, UK, and China Continue to Increase Holdings

US federal debt surpassed $39 trillion for the first time, with 30-year Treasury yields climbing to nearly 4.9%. Despite deteriorating fiscal prospects, overseas holdings of US Treasuries increased by $34.8 billion in January, defying the trend and signaling robust foreign demand for US debt. Analysts note that holdings of US Treasuries are driven not only by attractive yields but also by their unparalleled liquidity. The complex signals sent by high debt levels and elevated yields will shape future market directions.

Iran Bombs Qardaha, Lafvan; 20% Global Natural Gas Supply at Critical Risk

On March 18, Iran attacked Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, a globally important liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility. Market concerns about energy supply disruptions have driven oil prices higher. This incident has triggered a systemic supply storm, impacting aviation, logistics, and consumer goods industries. The cryptocurrency market may experience volatility due to risk-off sentiment, with potential long-term benefits from quantitative easing policies. Qatar and Japan are particularly vulnerable in the supply disruption, and supply chain resilience will be tested.