ChainCatcher reports that according to Bloomberg, the core issue behind this round of “slow” Bitcoin sell-off is that the investors who were expected to be the most stable buyers in the new cycle have not continued to enter the market. Data from Glassnode shows that investors entering through the US spot Bitcoin ETF have an average purchase cost of approximately $84,100. Currently, with Bitcoin hovering around $78,500, this group is experiencing an unrealized loss of about 8%–9%.
This is not the first time ETF investors have faced paper losses. As early as November last year, when Bitcoin briefly fell below $89,600 (which was the average cost range for ETF investors at the time), analysts pointed out that this would be a critical test of the “confidence strength” of emerging mainstream investors. Since then, with capital inflows at the beginning of 2024 remaining profitable, the overall average cost of the ETF has decreased, but later entrants have fully entered the loss zone. From its peak, Bitcoin has fallen more than 35% below the 2025 high, and over the weekend, in a low-liquidity trading environment, it briefly dropped below $77,000.
Analysts believe this is the result of multiple factors: drying up capital inflows, declining market liquidity, and a general weakening of macro attractiveness. Bitcoin has failed to respond to traditional bullish factors such as a weakening dollar or geopolitical risks, and its decoupling from other assets makes its trend increasingly directionless. The key difference between the sharp drop in October and the current downward movement is market sentiment: now, there is no panic, only “absence.” The rally that pushed Bitcoin above $125,000 in 2025 was driven by market enthusiasm over regulatory prospects, institutional entry, and a bullish retail base. However, after the October crash liquidated billions of dollars in leveraged positions, it was these buyers who once propelled the rally that chose to stay on the sidelines and wait.
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