ChainCatcher News reports that the options market shows a clear downward skew. As of June 26, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 is 30%, while the probability of rising above $120,000 is 19%.
The report states that on the Derive and Deribit platforms, open interest in put options with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000 is very concentrated, indicating that the market expects the price to decline to the mid-$70,000 range.
Note: The options skew (an indicator measuring the difference in prices between call and put options) remains negative, which means there is short-term downside risk.
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