- Kaiko Research’s latest notes suggest that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact.
- The recent drawdowns coincide with the expected 50%-80% corrections after a cycle peak.
The overly bearish Bitcoin (BTC) and the overall crypto market structure are strong indications that the four-year cycle remains intact. Kaiko Research, a provider of institutional-grade insights, aligns the existing trend with the 2022 crypto winter.
Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle
The Bitcoin four-year cycle is a predictable market pattern that coincides with BTC’s halving epochs. The halving is a predetermined event in Bitcoin in which the network halves mining rewards every 210,000 blocks, which takes place every 4 years.
Here is a rundown of each phase in the four-year cycle:
![]()
![]()
ADVERTISEMENT* The cycle typically starts with a steady accumulation phase in anticipation of the supply shock brought by each halving.
- Then the halving occurs, triggering a new level of scarcity in BTC’s circulating supply.
- Next is the post-halving surge to a new all-time high (ATH), which typically happens 9 to 18 months after the halving.
- Finally, BTC’s price undergoes a sharp correction, erasing gains but never falling below the previous cycle’s low.
The 2026 Bear Cycle
The last Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024, at block height 840,000. It reduced Bitcoin mining rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. Hence, applying the cyclical pattern puts 2025 as the expected peak of the event, culminating at an ATH of $126,198.07 in October of that year.
Going forward, 2026 is arguably the corrective phase of the cycle, ushering in the dreaded crypto winter. However, many analysts believe that the growing involvement and influence of institutional players in Bitcoin has broken the four-year cycle into shorter bursts. Bitwise even suggested that the situation has reduced the timeline to a two-year cycle.
Kaiko’s latest report states that the ongoing price correction in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market aligns with the four-year halving cycle. Based on its analysis, the ongoing correction from the ATH above $126,000 to the $60,000-$70,000 range remains consistent with the typical 50%-80% drawdowns following cycle peaks. Moreover, the prevailing investor sentiment mirrors that of the 2022 crypto winter.
ADVERTISEMENTKaiko predicts that a deeper markdown could further pull the price below $60,000. That’s unless a key catalyst builds enough hype to turn things around.
Nevertheless, the silver lining in this scenario is that the continuation of the trend within the halving cycle means BTC is nowhere near a structural break that some alarmists have been spreading.
ADVERTISEMENT
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
A certain whale opened a short position with 40x leverage after BTC broke through $74,000, with a position size reaching $1.12 million.
Gate News reported that on March 18, according to Hyperinsight monitoring, within the past 10 minutes, after BTC surged over $74,000 in a short period, a whale account starting with 0x8b6 opened a new BTC short position with 40x leverage at an average entry price of $74,050 with a position size of $1.12 million. The whale is currently in a floating loss of $1,300 (-4.3%).
GateNews19m ago
Bitcoin Chart Warns of Major Crash Before Next Rally: How Low Could BTC Go?
Bitcoin price continues to trade near the mid $70,000 region after a steady climb during the past month. The latest BTC price structure shows strength on higher timeframes, though a widely shared chart now raises an uncomfortable question for bulls. The chart suggests that the current Bitcoin c
CaptainAltcoin28m ago
Bitmain, embroiled in controversy, has found its strongest supporter in the United States
Written by: Ryan Weeks, Bloomberg
Compiled by: Luffy, Foresight News
Once viewed by the United States as a national security threat, embroiled in controversies over miner security and remote control, Bitmain is the absolute dominant player in the global Bitcoin mining machine industry. This mysterious Chinese company, after facing White House bans and Department of Homeland Security investigations, unexpectedly formed an important business alliance with Eric Trump, the son of the former U.S. president.
On one side is the Chinese mining machine giant questioned for endangering power grids and military base security; on the other is a Bitcoin company under the Trump family's banner. The two sides have built a super mining farm in Texas and launched major cooperation. This article reconstructs this alliance intertwined with politics and cryptocurrency, revealing how Bitmain reversed course from America's "blacklist" and became one of the most critical business partners of the Trump family. Below is the full translation:
Mining Empire: The Mysterious and Monopolistic Bitmain
PANews35m ago
QCP: BTC Oscillates Near $74,000; Multi-Country Central Bank Rate Decisions Key This Week
QCP Capital analysis indicates that BTC price is maintaining around $74,000, with a lack of upward momentum. Although the overall crypto market remains under pressure, the declines are relatively controlled. Central bank policy meetings throughout the year will influence the market, as high oil prices have lowered expectations for rate cuts, and the interest rate environment has weakened support for crypto assets. Until policy and geopolitical situations become clearer, a volatile pattern may continue.
GateNews36m ago
OpenSea CEO responds to Vanity Fair controversy: wife developing independently, team will focus on long-term growth
OpenSea CEO Devin Finzer, responding to the Vanity Fair controversy, stated that despite external criticism, the team continues to develop and focuses on products that users love. He emphasized that the crypto industry is still in its early stages and will become integrated into daily life in the future, noting that the report misunderstood the industry.
GateNews37m ago
