Bitcoin Poised for a Rebound as Analysts Eye Trump’s Credit Policy and On-Chain Signals

Bitcoin is once again drawing investor attention. The current BTC price hovers around $90,580, falling below the estimated average mining cost of approximately $101,000 per BTC. This scenario typically creates a potential price floor—miners tend not to panic sell but instead slow production and wait for more favorable market conditions.

“Bitcoin is cheap compared to what it costs to produce it. Most people panic and sell here. Then BTC bounces back above mining cost and everyone suddenly becomes optimistic again. Same story every cycle,” explained analyst Wimar.X.

Woo: Real Flows Matter More Than Market Narratives On-chain expert Willy Woo emphasizes that actual capital inflows are the key driver of BTC’s recovery, rather than market stories or correlations with equities. “The market can grow without BTC if investors aren’t allocating capital. Our work focuses on measuring real inflows from real investors—not imaginary flows based on narratives,” Woo stated.

Trump’s Credit Policy May Accelerate Shift Toward DeFi A potential catalyst is former President Donald Trump’s proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, starting January 20, 2026. While aimed at relieving financial pressure for millions of Americans, the policy could restrict access to traditional credit for those with a credit score under 780.

Financial commentators warn that this may push underserved consumers toward alternative financial systems—like Bitcoin, stablecoins, and decentralized finance platforms (DeFi) such as Aave or Compound. Banks could respond by excluding higher-risk customers, who might then explore crypto-based financial tools. “Tomorrow we’ll see the market’s reaction to Trump’s call for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates, which could significantly impact Visa and Mastercard,” noted one analyst.

A Delicate Balance Between Hope and Structural Challenges While on-chain signals and political developments suggest the potential for a short-term BTC rally, Woo cautions that liquidity inflows have been declining since early 2025 compared to price momentum. This raises doubts about whether any rebound will have the support needed for sustained growth. In summary, Bitcoin is entering a crucial phase. If mining cost support, accelerating real capital flows, and government-induced pressure on traditional finance converge, the result could be significant price volatility. Investors will be closely watching the coming weeks to see whether the market can seize this rare moment.

Key Takeaways: 🔹 BTC price is trading below estimated production costs (~$101,000)

🔹 Willy Woo: Real investor flows matter more than narratives or market correlations

🔹 Trump’s 10% credit rate cap could spark interest in DeFi

🔹 Banks may turn away high-risk clients → crypto and DeFi adoption

🔹 Recovery possible, but long-term sustainability remains uncertain

#bitcoin , #BTC , #CryptoMarket , #CryptoVolatility , #TRUMP

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