As spot Ethereum ETF capital flows improve, the price structure of Ethereum (ETH) is gradually signaling a bullish trend. According to the latest market data, as of December 15th Asian trading hours, Ethereum’s price is approximately $3,113. Although it has retreated compared to last week, positive changes are emerging in both technical and capital aspects, creating conditions for a subsequent rebound.
Previously, Ethereum’s decline was mainly driven by decreased on-chain activity, phased profit-taking, and risk aversion triggered by macroeconomic uncertainties. Meanwhile, the overall liquidation pressure in the crypto market has intensified, also weighing on ETH prices. However, based on current indicators, the market may have entered a consolidation phase with a bottoming process.
Firstly, from the supply side, the proportion of Ethereum held on centralized exchanges has fallen to about 8.7%, reaching a new low since 2015. A large amount of ETH has been transferred to staking, re-staking, and institutional digital asset reserves, significantly reducing potential selling pressure. Notably, Bitmine, led by Tom Lee, recently increased its holdings of Ethereum by approximately $73.2 million, indicating institutional confidence in ETH’s medium- to long-term value.
Secondly, signs of improved capital flow are emerging. After experiencing a week of outflows, the US spot Ethereum ETF has attracted renewed capital inflows, with a weekly net inflow of nearly $209 million. Historical experience suggests that when ETFs regain investor favor, it often indicates a rise in institutional risk appetite, providing support for prices.
From a technical analysis perspective, the weekly chart shows Ethereum forming a large inverse head and shoulders pattern, a classic trend reversal signal. Meanwhile, the price has re-claimed the 50-day moving average, and the RSI indicator continues to rise, indicating that buying momentum is gradually strengthening.
If this pattern confirms, Ethereum’s primary upside target is around $3,600, representing approximately a 15% increase from current levels. This target coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, marking a key resistance zone. On the downside, attention should be paid to the $2,760 level, corresponding to the 38.2% retracement, which could serve as an important support.
Overall, with declining exchange supply, ETF capital inflows, and improving technical patterns, Ethereum has short-term rebound potential. The market’s focus is gradually shifting to whether the trend reversal can be ultimately confirmed.
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