LuzhouSanyren

Decisive Non-Farm
My advice is not to chase highs or sell lows
Don't chase longs above 90,000 for Bitcoin or 3,100 for Ethereum
Of course, this is just my personal opinion
After all, before the data is released, everyone is guessing based on their feelings
For those without positions, no FOMO; it's okay not to participate in the market now. Wait until the trend becomes clearer before looking for entry points
Good luck to you

I predict that tonight's non-farm employment numbers will be significantly higher than the market consensus. ( This is Gemini's forecast, not mine, not mine, hahaha )
• Forecasted figure: 92,000 - 105,000 (market expectation is only 60,000 - 70,000).
• Unemployment rate forecast: 4.5% (remaining low and not soaring to 4.7% as dovish expectations suggest).
• Reasoning: The so-called "weak employment" at the end of 2025 is largely due to statistical noise caused by government shutdowns. As private sector and service industry hiring rebounds in January, combined with sticky wage growth, tonight's

Ethereum 3303 short position. I sold half at 3080, and just added another at 3120. Because I couldn't push through 3130, I decisively closed the position.
Let's talk about Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has been following Fibonacci levels very strictly these days.
On the 15-minute small timeframe, the EMA200 is opening up.
As long as it hits the moving average, it encounters resistance.
So I reopened a short position on Bitcoin.
The position size is not large.
Suggested entry points for long positions:
Bitcoin 886-882
Ethereum 2990-2930
If it drops below these levels, then Bitcoin at 855 and Ethereum at 284

#晒出我的持仓收益#

Butterfly Effect: Survival Guide for US Stocks and the Crypto World Under China-Japan Trade Game
At the beginning of 2026, China implemented export controls on dual-use items to Japan. While this seems like a neighborhood dispute, it actually drops a heavy bomb into the "deep water zone" of the global tech supply chain.
1. Nasdaq: From "Chip Shortage" to "Material Shortage" Valuation Reshaping
Materials like gallium and germanium controlled by China are the "grain" of Japan's high-end manufacturing. Once Japan cuts off supplies, the supply chains of Nasdaq heavyweight stocks (such as NVIDIA, A

The Heart of the Scatterer: Is Fibonacci Still Useful? A Smarter Approach
What is Fibonacci? Why does Ethereum often like to hit the 0.618 Fibonacci level?
Its core is simple: market trends are like springs. After stretching or compressing, the rebound or consolidation often occurs at certain golden ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%))
Because countless spot traders are watching these levels, they naturally become areas of psychological and capital battles.
Actually, there's a secret: you don't need to repeatedly draw lines on the chart to align. For any wave pattern, just identify clear

Position Management in the Heart of the Casual Trader's Method
Using 100x leverage for contracts, why are 3%-5% positions considered "conservative"?
If hearing "100x leverage" makes you think of reckless gamblers, this article might completely change your perception.
Many traders fear leverage, especially "hundredfold leverage," as if it's a red button that triggers liquidation with a single click. But today, I want to reveal a core truth that most people overlook: what truly determines your risk level is not the leverage multiple, but the proportion of your position relative to your total fun

#黑天鹅
Always be vigilant in times of peace, summarize historical black swans
Predict the likelihood of current black swans
In the crypto world, “black swan” refers to events that are highly unexpected, have a very low probability of occurring, but cause extremely significant impact. Due to the lack of strong regulation, high leverage, and high interconnectedness in the crypto market itself, the destructive power of black swans often exceeds that of traditional financial markets.
Below is a review of historical black swan events in the crypto space, as well as an in-depth analysis of potential

The United States has been completely caught off guard this time. Recently, the U.S. has accumulated a large stockpile of copper, driving copper prices to new heights. China also has no intention of letting the U.S. have its way and has countered with a strategic move. Americans across the ocean are now somewhat bewildered, looking at mountains of copper in their warehouses and then at the suddenly tightened silver export restrictions on the other side of the ocean, likely feeling a complex mix of emotions. This is a classic case of "I want to engage in a price war with you, but you want to cu

Tell a story
Everyone thinks that the bulls have returned, those who are out of the market and those who are shorting have all hit stop-losses
Everyone is trying to rebound and go long
Then Bitcoin and Ethereum keep going down without looking back, hitting new lows
Are the people losing money on both short and long positions the same group?
Feels like I'm chasing dreams
Short on Ethereum at 3185, added a position at 3303, if it goes up again, it will break 3630
Short on Bitcoin at 92500, placed a buy at 95200 but didn't get filled

Trading Genius Chapter 1, The Fall of the Genius
Main upward wave I was caught in a short position
Long positions exited too early
Such a pity, such a pity, such a pity
Actually, hedging is possible, no need to rush into long positions
Shorts at 92500 and 3200, not a large position, should be able to wait it out
No rush to add to positions, change the timing for more space
Sometimes, holding through the order makes the analysis of the market clearer
The big account is exhausted, this account's position and funds are small, no panic
Bitcoin is much stronger than Ethereum, still the big brother