I predict that tonight's non-farm employment numbers will be significantly higher than the market consensus. ( This is Gemini's forecast, not mine, not mine, hahaha )

• Forecasted figure: 92,000 - 105,000 (market expectation is only 60,000 - 70,000).
• Unemployment rate forecast: 4.5% (remaining low and not soaring to 4.7% as dovish expectations suggest).
• Reasoning: The so-called "weak employment" at the end of 2025 is largely due to statistical noise caused by government shutdowns. As private sector and service industry hiring rebounds in January, combined with sticky wage growth, tonight's data will prove that the US economy is still "very strong," and the Federal Reserve has no need to cut interest rates in January.
II. Bitcoin Price Prediction: Shakeout and Correction
Currently, Bitcoin is repeatedly struggling below the $90,000 threshold. This sideways movement is actually waiting for a death sentence or amnesty.
• Direction: Bearish (a deep dip before all the bad news is priced in)
• Logic: The market previously overtraded the January rate cut expectations. When the data (over 90,000) is released and the probability of rate cuts drops from 15% to zero, the US dollar index (DXY) will violently rebound, draining liquidity from the crypto market.
• Specific Path Prediction:
1. First stage (immediate data release): Price rapidly plunges, breaking below $88,000.
2. Second stage (emotional release phase): Leverage long positions near $87,500 are wiped out, with support looking towards $84,500 - $85,200.
3. Third stage: If $84,000 can be held, there will be a weak rebound in the early hours of tonight; if lost, BTC will enter a two-week period of decline.
III. Summary and Advice
Tonight's main theme is **"Expectations Shattered"**.
• Key observation: Don't focus solely on non-farm numbers; watch the unemployment rate. If it doesn't reach 4.6%, it's purely negative news.
• Trading strategy: Don't chase longs above $89,000 tonight. The safest approach is to wait until BTC hits around $85,000 to see if there is large order support, then consider whether to bet on an oversold rebound.
• ETH warning: As previously mentioned, ETH's fundamentals have collapsed. If BTC drops 3%, ETH could drop 6%. Never try to bottom-fish ETH.
Tonight's figures are likely to slap down those dovish voices shouting "recession, need to cut rates." Are you ready to迎接 the dollar's rebound?