On March 22, following Trump's ultimatum to Iran, Bitcoin fell below $69,200, declining 2.2% over 24 hours. Market sentiment impacted mainstream crypto assets broadly, with declines across the board despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged. War risk has made traders cautious. If Iran fails to restore Strait of Hormuz passage, the conflict could escalate, impacting global energy transportation.

On March 22, after Trump issued a "48-hour ultimatum," crude oil prices rose. Sky founder Rune's multiple leveraged positions were profitable, with a structure including a 20x leveraged WTI crude oil long position with unrealized gains of approximately $155,000, a 7x leveraged Brent crude oil long position with unrealized gains of approximately $130,000, and total position value reaching approximately $11.55 million.

Gate News: On March 21, DeFiance Capital CEO Arthur posted on X platform stating that in the short term, it is unlikely that Trump will back down or that the Middle East situation will cool down. Currently, the US and Israel continue to exert pressure on Iran. He pointed out that global supply chains may face further disruption in the coming weeks. According to previous reports by Axios, the Trump administration is considering occupying or blockading Iran's Kharg Island to force it to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

DeFiance Capital CEO Arthur stated on the X platform that TACO and the Middle East situation will not ease in the short term, with the US and Israel putting pressure on Iran. Global supply chains may be affected in the coming weeks, and the Trump administration is considering blockading Iran's Hormuz Strait.

On March 20, a prediction market showed two high-win-rate addresses invested $9,700 in the "Will the US military invade Iran?" event, selecting "No." The current probability for "No" in this event is 40%. Trump stated during a meeting with Japan's Prime Minister that he would not deploy US military forces, while the Defense Secretary reiterated US military objectives. Trader behavior indicates short-term arbitrage rather than betting on the actual occurrence of the event.

On March 20, prediction platforms showed the probability of the U.S. confirming the existence of extraterrestrials before 2027 rose to 17%. The White House-registered "aliens.gov" currently has no content. Trump announced plans to declassify UFO-related files, with the Defense Secretary confirming a review is underway, though no timeline was disclosed. Former officials claim the government holds numerous unpublished video evidence.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on March 19th, an address on Polymarket wagered $6,600 betting that Trump will visit China before July, with the current event probability at 79%. Trump has previously postponed trips and stated that U.S.-China relations are good, while facing midterm election pressure. The trader may not necessarily be betting on the event occurring, but rather engaging in short-term trading.

Gate News reports that on March 19, according to Lookonchain monitoring, a certain address went long on 33 tokens but shorted TRUMP.

On March 19th, a profitable account on prediction market Polymarket placed a $2,000 bet that crude oil will reach $120 by the end of March, with a current probability of 25%. Additionally, on March 18th, Israel's military strikes on Iranian oil facilities prompted a statement from Trump, stating that the U.S. was not aware of this. Meanwhile, the U.S. launched a strategic petroleum reserve release plan of 172 million barrels.

On March 19, Gate News reported that monitoring shows an address on Polymarket deposited $40,000 betting on a ceasefire between the US and Iran before April 15, with the current probability of negation at 80%. Trump warned Iran that if it attacks Qatar again, the US will take stronger action and is considering deploying an additional thousand American troops. Meanwhile, the trader's behavior suggests they are not only betting on the event but may also have profit-taking and stop-loss strategies in place.