Prediction market platform Kalshi has filed a lawsuit in Iowa, alleging that regulators may restrict the operation of its sports event contract products and asserting federal law takes precedence. The company did not receive a commitment not to take enforcement action after meeting with government officials and faces legal risks. Different states have varying regulatory attitudes toward such contracts, and court rulings are inconsistent, with ongoing disputes over their legal status.

On March 12, the decentralized prediction market Polymarket showed that an investor bet $10,000 on "Iranian leadership will not change before May," with the current price slightly down. U.S. intelligence analysts believe the Iranian government remains stable, despite the death of Khamenei, Iran is still strengthening domestic control.

According to Polymarket data, on March 12th, an address placed a $4,900 bet that "Trump will announce the cessation of military operations against Iran before May." This bet is based on statements from Trump and the U.S. government, with the end of the war being decided by them. Oil prices surged due to Iran's attack on supply chains. The trader's behavior indicates that they are not betting on the actual occurrence of the event.

Trump's digital asset advisory team pointed out that stablecoins regulated under the GENIUS Act are expected to bring new capital inflows to the U.S. banking system, but the banking industry remains cautious about their potential deposit-raising schemes. Although the crypto industry believes regulation should focus on the use of funds, the yield mechanism of stablecoins remains a legislative point of contention. The White House is seeking to establish a new consensus on stablecoin policies.

As prediction markets develop, several major US prime brokers are pushing funds into the space, with Clear Street and Marex Group planning to enable clients to participate in Kalshi's event trading. Institutional demand for prediction markets is increasing, but regulatory challenges remain. Once the regulatory framework is in place, prediction markets are expected to become a new growth area on Wall Street.

On March 12th, Gate Research Institute noted that the volatility of traditional assets such as gold and crude oil reached new highs, at 33% and 108% respectively. In the crypto assets sector, the implied volatility of BTC and ETH is also high. Recently, the market has been dominated by put options, but the demand for hedging has weakened, and short-term price fluctuations may be influenced by Gamma effects. Gate has also launched gold and crude oil options, marking the first introduction of traditional assets.

21Shares strategist Matt Mena pointed out that March CPI data has been absorbed by the market. In the short term, BTC is expected to fluctuate between $68,000 and $74,000. After breaking above $75,000, it may enter the $75,000 to $80,000 range. Historically, BTC often rebounds more than 15% after geopolitical shocks, and a restart of rate cuts could accelerate the recovery.

OpenRouter launched two anonymous models, Hunter Alpha and Healer Alpha, on March 12, both available for free. Hunter Alpha is a 1 trillion parameter text model focused on long-term planning and complex reasoning; Healer Alpha is a multimodal model supporting visual and audio inputs. The community has various speculations about the identities of these models, but no official confirmation has been provided.

Gate News Report, March 12 — Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy stated that the cryptocurrency industry may evolve into three possible futures: the first is traditional finance adopting crypto technology; the second is everything migrating to DeFi; the third is traditional finance and crypto coexisting in parallel, forming a parallel economic system. Evgeny Gaevoy also pointed out that most of these paths would "stifle" the ideals of Cypherpunk.

Gate News Report, March 12 — According to on-chain data monitoring, Pump.fun has registered subdomains on Base, BSC, Monad, and Ethereum. At the same time, Pump.fun also removed the Solana logo from its X platform account homepage. The market believes these actions may be early signals of the platform's multi-chain expansion.