BlockBeats News, March 26 — According to CCTV News, due to the prolonged US-Israel-Iran conflict, additional downside risks have emerged for the US economy, leading multiple institutions to raise the probability of a recession in the United States.
According to US sources on the 25th, Moody’s Analytics model shows that the probability of the US economy entering a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 48.6%; Goldman Sachs has increased its forecasted probability to 30%; Wilmington Trust and Ernst & Young each estimate the likelihood of a US recession at 45% and 40%, respectively. Under normal circumstances, this probability would be around 20%.
Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi stated that, worryingly, the recession risk is “uncomfortably high and continues to rise,” and a recession is a real threat. If current high oil prices persist into late May through the end of Q2, “the US economy will fall into a recession.”
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