Gate News reports that on March 25th, U.S. sources stated that the ongoing Israel-U.S. conflict has added additional downside risks to the U.S. economy. Several institutions have recently raised the probability of a recession in the United States. Moody’s Analytics model shows that the chance of a recession within the next 12 months has increased to 48.6%; Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast probability to 30%; Wilmington Trust and Ernst & Young-Booz Allen respectively estimate the recession risk at 45% and 40%. Under normal circumstances, this probability would be around 20%. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi said, “What is concerning is that the recession risk is ‘uncomfortably high and continues to rise,’ and a recession is now a real threat.” If current high oil prices persist into late May through the end of Q2, “the U.S. economy will fall into a recession.”
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