Solana’s price continues to weaken after the breakdown of its medium-term technical structure, currently hovering around $85. Short-term downside risks remain. As of press time, SOL is approximately $86.02, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours. Over the past 7 days, it has fallen about 13%, with a total decline of 35% over 30 days. From its all-time high near $293 in January 2025, it has retreated nearly 70%, and market confidence has been significantly affected.
The price briefly rebounded at the beginning of the month but was quickly met with resistance and fell back. It is now trading near the lower end of the seven-day range ($75.76 to $104.98). Although bulls attempted to defend the price, trading volume was insufficient to sustain the rebound. In the past 24 hours, spot trading volume plummeted approximately 36% to $3.72 billion, indicating increased market caution.
The derivatives market has also cooled down. According to CoinGlass, SOL derivatives trading volume declined 22.44% to $9.46 billion, with open interest decreasing 2.34% to $5.29 billion, suggesting traders are more inclined to reduce positions rather than open new ones. The rise in positions during negative funding rate phases mainly comes from short sellers increasing their bets, rather than bullish capital flowing in.
On the macro front, geopolitical tensions and hawkish U.S. policies continue to suppress high-volatility assets. As a high-beta token, Solana is under more pressure. Additionally, recent liquidation of leveraged long positions has further amplified price volatility.
Technically, SOL remains in a clear downtrend channel. After encountering resistance at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands around $108, the price retreated and has been trading below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. The $95 to $100 zone has become a strong resistance area. The RSI hovers around 30, indicating oversold conditions but lacking bullish divergence signals. The $85 level provides short-term support; a daily close below this could lead to a decline toward the $80 to $75 range.
To reverse the trend, Solana needs to break back above the middle Bollinger Band and hold above $100, accompanied by increased trading volume. However, based on the current structure and capital flow, there are no clear signs of a trend reversal yet.
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