January 15 News, well-known crypto market investor Arthur Hayes stated that although Bitcoin’s market performance in 2025 significantly lags behind gold and the technology sector, over a longer cycle, Bitcoin still has a high probability of reaching a new all-time high in 2026. He emphasized that the core variable influencing Bitcoin’s future trend is not short-term price fluctuations, but the changing trend of dollar liquidity.
Arthur Hayes pointed out that for Bitcoin to once again outperform gold and the Nasdaq Index, the prerequisite is that dollar liquidity re-enters an expansion cycle. If the supply of dollars cannot continue to increase, risk assets in the market will struggle to gain enough upward momentum, and Bitcoin will naturally be constrained. In his view, dollar liquidity is the key fundamental factor determining Bitcoin’s long-term value.
In his latest analysis, Arthur Hayes mentioned that factors potentially driving a significant rebound in liquidity include the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion, which will release more funds into the financial system. Meanwhile, as the overall financial environment gradually loosens, mortgage rates may fall, and commercial banks’ lending behaviors will also change accordingly, with more funds expected to flow into strategic industries supported by the U.S. government.
Additionally, military-related expenditures are also seen as a potential source of liquidity. Arthur Hayes believes that maintaining influence globally requires long-term fiscal and financial support, and related financing will ultimately be completed through the banking system, objectively promoting the expansion of the money supply. This background is bullish for scarce assets like Bitcoin in the medium to long term.
Looking back at history, a loose monetary environment often increases investors’ demand for inflation-hedging assets, benefiting Bitcoin. Arthur Hayes also candidly admitted that the phased contraction of dollar liquidity in 2025 is closely correlated with a decline in Bitcoin prices. During the same period, Bitcoin’s annual decline exceeded 14%, while gold prices rose by over 44%.
In comparison, technology stocks performed strongly, becoming the highest-return sector within the S&P 500 Index. Arthur Hayes attributes this divergence to policy influences, believing that AI-related sectors in the U.S. and China already possess clear strategic attributes. Even if some traditional indicators are weak, funds continue to flow into this direction.
From a medium to long-term perspective, Arthur Hayes remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects, expecting a new trend cycle in 2026 amid the re-expansion of dollar liquidity.
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