On January 14, news reports indicate that under the combined influence of improved regulatory environment, a rebound in on-chain data, and changes in capital structure, discussions about “Ethereum surpassing Bitcoin in performance by 2026” have significantly heated up. Multiple indicators suggest that ETH is likely to end its recent years of relative weakness and enter a window of structural recovery.
Looking at historical performance, according to CoinGecko data, since 2023, Ethereum’s cumulative increase has been approximately 160%, which is significantly behind Bitcoin’s roughly 457% gain. This long-term gap has been a constraint on market confidence. However, overall, signs of divergence are beginning to loosen. Bitcoin’s market share rose to 66% at the beginning of 2026 before starting to decline, reflecting capital rotation from a single dominant asset to other mainstream cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has increased by about 3.6% this year. Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of the quantitative yield protocol Axis, stated that the rebound of ETH/BTC combined with Bitcoin’s stagnation in dominance has historically been associated with a phase of strength in altcoins, especially after Bitcoin ETF demand stabilized, prompting some funds to seek higher risk returns within the Ethereum ecosystem.
On-chain fundamentals also support this outlook. Data shows that Ethereum’s total transaction volume in 2026 increased by approximately 6.8% year-over-year, reaching an average of 2.05 million transactions per day. Since mid-December last year, this has increased by over 30%, reflecting continued growth in DeFi, Layer 2, and re-staking activities.
Overall, the market remains cautious about a full-scale “altcoin season.” Prediction platforms indicate that the probability of a large-scale altcoin rally before April 2026 is less than 20%. However, many industry experts believe that potential ETF capital inflows, fee burn mechanisms, Layer 2 expansion, and protocol upgrades such as Fusaka and Glamsterdam could gradually push Ethereum towards becoming an “AI and smart contract settlement layer.”
Although ETH’s return rate this year has slightly outperformed Bitcoin, general analysis suggests that whether it can sustain excess performance in 2026 still depends on the coordination of macro liquidity and the pace of regulatory implementation.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Why Bitcoin May Be About to Outperform Gold After This Signal
_Bitcoin-gold correlation hits -0.9, BTC/Gold ratio drops 70%, and macro indicators align with past Bitcoin rally phases._
Bitcoin and gold often move in different directions during periods of market stress.
Recent data shows a rare shift in their relationship, and it has drawn attention from mar
LiveBTCNews27m ago
Bitcoin to Monero Swaps Surge as Privacy Demand Climbs
Network Strength Signals Growth
Monero continues to show strong network performance alongside rising demand. Its hash rate has climbed steadily, reflecting increased miner participation and confidence in the network. Moreover, consistent transaction activity indicates sustained user engagement
CryptoBreaking38m ago
Morgan Stanley plans to support tokenized stock trading on alternative trading systems in the second half of 2026
Morgan Stanley's Head of Digital Assets Strategy Amy Oldenburg stated that the development of Wall Street's crypto business stems from years of infrastructure modernization work rather than FOMO. The firm has expanded into trading and asset management, and plans to support tokenized stock trading in the second half of 2026, but faces challenges with core system upgrades.
GateNews42m ago
US CFTC Chairperson Announces Establishment of "Innovation Task Force" to Define Regulatory Guidelines for Crypto Assets, AI, and Prediction Markets
U.S. CFTC Chair Michael S. Selig announced the establishment of an "Innovation Task Force" that will work with the Innovation Advisory Committee to develop regulatory frameworks for crypto assets, AI automated systems, and prediction markets to promote fintech innovation and ensure U.S. market participants are not excluded. The task force will coordinate with the SEC's crypto task force to address overlapping regulatory issues.
動區BlockTempo1h ago
