Why did Bitcoin rise today? Trump's 25% Tariff "Takes Effect Immediately" Sparks a Safe-Haven Surge

Bitcoin approaches $91,400 today. Trump announces immediate implementation of a 25% tariff increase on trade with Iran, with protests in Iran resulting in nearly 600 deaths and over ten thousand arrests. On the technical side, BTC is forming a symmetrical triangle resistance at $91,900, similar to the pattern before a breakout in early 2025 (when it surged over 40%). The trendline support is at $90,200, and RSI remains steady at 50, indicating stored momentum.

The hedging logic and capital flow behind Trump’s 25% tariff

The primary reason for Bitcoin’s rise today is geopolitical hedging demand. U.S. President Trump announced on Monday that a 25% tariff will be levied immediately on all countries and regions trading with Iran. This policy aims to pressure Tehran amid two weeks of ongoing protests and violent suppression within Iran. External reports indicate nearly 600 deaths and over ten thousand arrests due to the unrest.

Trump posted on Truth Social about the tariff decision, which could impact economies with trade relations with Iran, such as China, Brazil, Turkey, and Russia. Market participants generally see this as an escalation of “pressure on third parties”: by increasing costs and uncertainty in dealings with Iran, it further constrains Iran’s external trade and foreign exchange access, forcing Iranian authorities to make concessions domestically and diplomatically.

This tariff policy creates multiple layers of market uncertainty. First, there is the risk of retaliation from trade partners like China and Russia, potentially escalating trade wars. Second, supply chain disruptions are possible, as Iran is a major energy exporter; increased sanctions could push oil prices higher. Third, financial market volatility may spike, as sudden shifts in trade policies often lead to stock sell-offs.

In this context, Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold” is reaffirmed. Similar to traditional safe-haven assets like gold, Bitcoin’s features—decentralization, unconfiscability, and 24/7 global trading—are especially valuable during geopolitical crises. When investors worry about fiat currency devaluation, banking system risks, or asset freezes, Bitcoin offers a decentralized alternative.

The triple hedging logic triggered by tariff policies

Trade war risk: China, Russia may retaliate, undermining dollar confidence and boosting Bitcoin

Inflation expectations: Disrupted energy supply chains push oil prices higher, decreasing fiat purchasing power

Asset security concerns: Frequent sanctions raise fears of asset freezes, highlighting Bitcoin’s unconfiscability

However, it’s important to note that the sustainability of this hedging logic is uncertain. Bitcoin’s performance during past geopolitical crises has been inconsistent; for example, during the initial phase of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, it briefly surged then quickly retreated. Therefore, while today’s rise points to hedging demand, whether this demand can translate into sustained buying remains to be seen.

Technical triangle compression hints at a 40% breakout?

(Source: Trading View)

The second reason for Bitcoin’s rise today comes from structural compression on the technical chart. Currently trading near $91,400, Bitcoin’s price appears calm on the surface, but a familiar pattern is quietly forming. The current consolidation resembles the pattern seen in early 2025, just before a significant breakout. Back then, Bitcoin was in a similar position before a major surge. This time, the pattern is forming at a much higher level.

In recent days, Bitcoin has fluctuated between the high $80,000s and low $90,000s, repeatedly stalling near resistance at $91,900. This behavior is similar to the period from March to May 2025, when Bitcoin lacked clear direction but was consolidating before breaking above $86,000 and accelerating upward. The key isn’t a lack of momentum but the structure itself. Buyers keep accumulating on dips, while sellers hold firm at the same support level, creating a narrowing range that increasingly resembles a symmetrical triangle.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price appears relatively neutral. BTC continues to make new lows but is supported by a clear upward trendline since January. The current price hovers around the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, both of which are flattening, indicating a market in balance rather than under downward pressure. Momentum indicators support this view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 50, rebounding from earlier weakness but not overextended. This suggests that if buyers regain control near resistance levels, Bitcoin still has room to rise.

Key technical levels include: the ascending trendline support at above $90,200, multiple rejections near resistance but no failure at $91,900, and the RSI’s neutral stance indicating stored momentum. The flat EMA indicators suggest a sideways market rather than a reversal. The critical zone remains between $91,900 and $92,000. A daily close above this zone could confirm the triangle pattern, opening the door to $93,000 and potentially further to $94,800.

A similar breakout in 2025 led to over 40% gains in the following months. While history doesn’t repeat exactly, this similarity suggests Bitcoin could be gearing up again rather than topping out. This structural pattern, resonating with fundamental factors, offers a deeper explanation for today’s rally.