Ethereum prices have experienced a phased rebound, with a gain of over 2% in the past 24 hours, and the monthly performance remains in positive territory. The apparent upward trend is a sign of recovery, but the technical structure has not been fully repaired. Prices are still operating within a potential bearish pattern, and market divergence is evident.
From a daily chart perspective, Ethereum remains in a head and shoulders pattern, with the high formed on January 6th considered the right shoulder. The current rebound appears more like a technical correction within the pattern rather than a trend reversal. The real risk zone is around $2880, which corresponds to the neckline area. If the daily chart effectively breaks below this level, technical calculations indicate about a 20% downside potential.
On-chain data also signals caution. The short-term holder NUPL remains in profit-taking territory, and continued upward price movement could trigger some profit realization. However, HODL Waves show that short-term holders with a holding period of 1 week to 1 month have decreased significantly from 11.5% in mid-December last year to about 3.9%, indicating weakening short-term selling pressure.
Meanwhile, some support levels are coming into play. The Money Flow Index (MFI) shows signs of bullish divergence, indicating sustained buying on dips during the correction rather than panic selling. Additionally, the proportion of medium-term holders (6 to 12 months) is steadily increasing, reflecting a more defensive allocation behavior.
Price-wise, the $3090 to $3110 zone is currently the most critical resistance area. This region contains a large amount of historical cost basis, often leading to market divergence. Failure to hold this level could see prices retreating to test $2970, or even approaching the key support at $2880 again. Conversely, if prices can sustain above $3300 and break through $3440, the bearish structure could be invalidated.
At this stage, Ethereum’s rebound is more a game of patience and structural assessment. The gains or losses at key levels will directly determine the trend direction.
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