Recent on-chain data shows a concerning signal in the crypto market: a large number of “crypto whales” are transferring assets into mainstream CEXs, but the corresponding buying power is clearly insufficient, indicating a beginning of an imbalance in the market supply and demand structure.
Analysts point out that over the past week, the total value of crypto assets transferred by whales into this CEX has reached approximately $2.4 billion, the highest level in nearly a month. Bitcoin and Ethereum nearly split the inflow volume, indicating that mainstream assets are becoming the primary targets for fund reallocation. Generally, large-scale fund inflows from personal wallets into exchanges are seen as potential signs of upcoming sell-offs or used as collateral in derivatives markets.
What’s more noteworthy is that this round of risk asset inflows has not been accompanied by a significant increase in stablecoins. Data shows that net inflows of stablecoins are basically flat, at around $42 million, mainly consisting of internal transfers between different blockchains rather than new purchasing power. This suggests that although selling pressure may be building, there is not enough market capital to absorb it.
From Bitcoin’s on-chain behavior, the long-term trend also leans towards caution. Since October last year, Bitcoin’s overall accumulation level has stagnated significantly, while the average size of deposits into this CEX has continued to rise. Currently, the size of individual Bitcoin deposits into exchanges has increased from previous levels of 8-10 BTC to 22-26 BTC, reflecting that large holders are consolidating their actions.
Meanwhile, outflows from exchanges have noticeably decreased. The average withdrawal size remains in the low range of 5.5 to 8.3 BTC, indicating that the behavior of transferring Bitcoin into cold wallets for long-term holding is decreasing. Overall, large holders’ willingness to accumulate long-term is waning, while the motivation to sell or hedge is increasing.
Analysts believe that this “whale entering but buyers absent” structure is a clear risk warning. Selling pressure is rising, and in the absence of new funds, upward price movement may be limited, posing resistance to short-term and medium-term trends.
In terms of price performance, Bitcoin has risen about 1.3% in the past 24 hours, reaching a high of $93,170 before falling back to around $92,600, ending the low-volatility period during the holiday. Overall, with increased whale inflows into CEXs, stagnation in Bitcoin accumulation, and insufficient buying momentum, the market may be entering a critical phase of high volatility and directional decision-making.
For investors paying attention to Bitcoin on-chain data, CEX fund flows, and whale behavior, the current stage requires more caution regarding short-term pullback risks rather than blindly chasing the rally.
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