Ethereum Price Analysis: 40% of ETH Supply in Loss, Market Pressure Continues to Rise

As 2025 approaches, the Ethereum (ETH) market is under significant downward pressure. The latest on-chain data shows that over 40% of the circulating supply of Ethereum is currently in loss, reflecting a recent price correction that has had a notable impact on the overall holding structure. This change has also made the strategic divergence among ETH holders more apparent.

From a price trend perspective, Ethereum has experienced three consecutive months of decline, with a single-month drop of 22.2% in November. After entering December, ETH briefly rebounded to around $3,000 but failed to hold above a key threshold. As of now, ETH price hovers around $2,970, with short-term rebounds more aligned with the overall crypto market rather than independent strength.

The rapid decline in profitability is a key feature of the current market. Data from Glassnode indicates that at the beginning of this month, over 75% of ETH supply was in profit; now, that figure has fallen to about 59%. This means a large portion of holdings are turning into unrealized losses, further intensifying market sentiment sensitivity.

Against this backdrop, some major Ethereum whales have begun adjusting their asset allocations. On-chain data shows that well-known investors have transferred ETH to cross-chain or centralized exchanges, rebalancing into Bitcoin Cash or other assets. Such actions are often interpreted by the market as potential signals of de-risking or risk hedging, especially during uncertain market conditions.

Meanwhile, some large holders are choosing to buy more against the trend. Several whale addresses have been continuously accumulating Ethereum in December, with total holdings reaching tens of thousands of ETH. Despite facing unrealized losses of several million dollars, they still demonstrate confidence in Ethereum’s medium- to long-term value. This “buy the dip” strategy reveals a clear divergence in market outlooks for ETH’s future.

From on-chain indicators, risk signals have not fully dissipated. Exchange ETH reserves are rising, leverage expectations are increasing, Ethereum ETF fund flows are continuing to outflow, and the US compliance CEX Premium Index has turned negative—all pointing to persistent short-term selling pressure.

Overall, the current Ethereum market is in a phase of high divergence: on one side, whales are reducing their holdings, capital is flowing out, and profits are under pressure; on the other side, long-term investors are accumulating during the decline. Whether ETH can see a sentiment and trend reversal in 2026 still depends on macro liquidity, on-chain demand, and fundamental ecosystem changes.