$8 trillion debt rollover approaching, 2026 may become a key breakthrough window for Bitcoin

Macroeconomic uncertainty is accelerating accumulation and gradually evolving into a key variable affecting risk assets. Since 2025, the overall performance of the cryptocurrency market has been weak, forming a stark contrast to Bitcoin’s strong rally in 2024. In 2024, Bitcoin delivered substantial returns for long-term holders and traders, but the current cycle is clearly under pressure.

The core of the change lies in the macro environment. The continuation of tariff policies during the Trump era, combined with sustained expansion of fiscal spending, has caused U.S. debt levels to grow rapidly. In fiscal year 2025, the U.S. government added approximately $2.17 trillion in new debt, bringing the total debt to about $38 trillion, accounting for 124.3% of GDP, a four-year high. This structural pressure is weakening the global attractiveness of the dollar.

The US Dollar Index DXY has fallen over 9% this year, marking the largest annual decline since 2017. On one hand, a weakening dollar exacerbates import-driven inflation risks and suppresses short-term risk asset performance; on the other hand, it creates a macro environment conducive to the medium- and long-term strength of inflation-hedging assets like Bitcoin.

A key market focus is the plan for the U.S. to extend approximately $8 trillion of pandemic-era debt around 2026. Unlike the low-interest-rate environment of 2020-2021, current interest rates are significantly higher, implying refinancing costs will rise sharply, and fiscal pressure will increase dramatically. Against this backdrop, markets generally expect the Federal Reserve may be forced to reintroduce liquidity to the market to alleviate debt and economic pressures.

Notably, Trump recently publicly stated that the next Federal Reserve Chair might prefer to maintain low interest rates, further reinforcing market expectations of future easing policies. Historical experience shows that liquidity expansion often provides significant support to Bitcoin prices.

Overall, amid high U.S. debt, dollar pressure, rising inflation concerns, and cautious foreign investment allocations, the probability of a shift toward easing monetary policy is increasing. If the Federal Reserve releases liquidity around 2026, Bitcoin could see an important macro-level breakthrough window in the second quarter of 2026.