Ethereum Faces Structural Test as Multi-Year Support Weakens

Ethereum nears a multi-year support that has defined the 2022–2025 market structure.

Exchange supply continues falling, suggesting long-term holders retain confidence.

Past cycles show similar breaks led to steep declines after trendline failure.

Ethereum trades near a major structural zone as long-term support weakens and exchange supply trends downward. The market approaches a point where price behavior may determine the next phase of the broader cycle.

Multi-Cycle Support Under Pressure

Ethereum forms a pattern seen in several past cycles, where price compresses within a multi-year range before testing a rising trendline. The 2022–2025 base has acted as the main structure supporting the market. Recent movement shows the price leaning heavily into that trendline as momentum slows.

A chart shared by Merlijn The Trader frames this zone as the last support standing. His comment states that losing the base leaves nothing below but air, noting that previous breakdowns followed the same structure. The chart shows the 2016–2018 and 2018–2021 patterns, where each base ended with a sharp decline after the trendline failed.

Source: X

Ethereum as of writing, trades inside the $1,400–$3,800 range that defined the current cycle. The rising support beneath this zone has carried the structure since 2022. The compression against the line mirrors earlier cycles, where prolonged consolidation ended with a decisive move once support gave way.

Exchange Supply Signals a Long-Term Shift

A chart comparing price to exchange supply shows a persistent supply decline. Exchange balances go down to 16.6 million units by end 2025 after being over 24 million units in the first half of 2023. This gradual shrinkage connotes continuous accumulation with the removal of tokens by holders out of exchanges.

Source: Cryptoquant

The price trend shows high swings in the same period. Ethernet leaves the mid-1K range in 2024 and reaches and hits above 3K at the highest point in 2025. Each rally occurs while exchange supply continues falling, suggesting long-term investors avoid adding liquidity during corrections.

The divergence between volatile price action and declining supply forms a structural backdrop. Even during sharp pullbacks, exchange balances do not reverse. This pattern often signals reduced willingness to sell, shaping the market for future demand shifts when sentiment returns.

Market Conditions and Current Price Behavior

At the time of writing, Ethereum has a value of $3,037.72 with a slight decrease of 2.50% over the past 24 hours. The asset records a modest 7-day gain of 1.17%. These short-term movements occur as the broader structure approaches the support line referenced by Merlijn The Trader.

Cycles shown in the historical chart reveal that each break of rising support resulted in steep downward moves. The arrows marked beneath each structure point to where momentum accelerated after support failure. The current setup matches those earlier rhythms without assuming the same outcome.

The combination of reduced exchange supply and a weakening multi-year base frames a decisive period. Ethereum’s reaction near this zone may shape the next structural move, as past cycles show accelerated price behavior once long-term support is lost.

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