Bitcoin’s short-term holders have moved into one of the deepest loss phases of the year, with margins near minus 10% as price trades below their realized level.
this overhang can pressure near-term rallies as weak hands continue to exit.
these deep loss pockets often appear closer to the late stages of a correction.

Bitcoin’s smallest holders are sending fewer coins to exchanges than at any point in recent years. this marks a structural shift rather than a simple pullback.
the rise of spot ETFs has given retail an easier path to gain exposure, reducing short-term exchange activity and potentially supporting a more stable long-term market structure.

Bitcoin’s latest selloff triggered the biggest spike in realized losses since 2022, with short-term holders driving most of the damage. long-term holder losses remain limited, showing that stress is concentrated among recent buyers.
this pattern often appears near late-stage capitulation phases, though confirmation still depends on broader trend conditions.

Bitcoin’s taker buy and sell ratio just printed 1.17, the strongest buy-side reading of the cycle.
this level shows aggressive market buying returning as liquidity conditions begin to improve.
the combination of renewed ETF flows, easing stress indicators and stronger order flow suggests the expansion phase is not yet exhausted, even if global risks still warrant caution.

gm☕️ lookng at my alts today 🤣

gm☕️🫱🏼‍🫲🏻

I was promised an only up in Q4.

gm☕️
happy Thanksgiving frens 🦃🍗🙏🏼

Bitcoin’s large exchange deposits are rising again. the 30d trend is now approaching the late-october peak, signaling increasing supply-side pressure.
this pattern often appears when bigger holders prepare liquidity for rotation or selling. the recent rise in large deposits is a signal worth monitoring.

USDT flows are shifting after one of the strongest profit-taking signals of the cycle. at the $126k peak, net outflows exceeded −$220M on a 30d basis.
Bitcoin’s recent stabilization comes as USDT flows turn positive again, easing the sell pressure that dominated earlier in the year.

got me a large $TAO bag right here. halving coming soon.

Bitcoin’s US ETF realized price is $79.3k, which makes it the first real stress level for these holders. most ETF flow comes from retail brokerage accounts, not seasoned crypto investors.
above that line the holders feel confident. below it, they face losses for the first time, which raises the risk of emotional selling.
how price behaves around $79.3k will show whether this group strengthens the trend or adds volatility to it.