Smileycapital

it appears that the risk assets are being sold

if you complain about me not finishing AI thesis givesway whilst I was busy dodging drones for weeks in Dubai and now catching up on missed work at home
you are immediately blocked and disqualified from it
keep yapping, I'll block all 75k of you

you like Bitcoin at 80k?
you will love it at half the price.

Bitcoin is going to $50k

safest positions until de-escalation are oil longs and dollar longs/holdings
any risk asset exposure should be hedged
I keep repeating this war runs deeper than most people think, by the time they understand, it will be too late

literally the only real usecase i see in bitcoin and ethereum is that they are the most sensitive assets when it comes to pricing in future liquidity, macro landscape and geopolitics
very easily used as a barometer for risk appetite as they move way sooner than everything else
eg. Iran war was priced in weeks before the actual event

Hyperliquid is the only coin I'm comfortable holding right now

positioning update/thoughts;
people asking me if I'm bullish risk due to my AI longs;
NO.
I sold crypto spot today I talked about a ~month ago for +25% [HYPE, MORPHO, SKY]
I am ~90% flat, as I have been publicly since August
my perp positioning is skewed VERY bearish risk, expressing it mostly via CL longs, DXY longs [currency pairs] and hopefully soon I can short BTC & ETH directly as well
my smaller longs in AI sector are merely an imbalanced hedge against main positions - they're also a good bet in case of any de-escalation on the war front
institutional equity puts are at fairly high level