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Big plans for 2026 👀

We are retesting a very important level right now on $BTC: yearly open and yearly VAL
Reject from here and this is most likely a successful auction outside the VA, meaning we will go lower
Reclaim it and this is most likely a VA deviation, meaning we go higher

Monday High on $BTC swept on a Tuesday, with a very heavy move up
In the past 5 years, 37.7% of the times we swept the Monday High on a Tuesday we also take the Monday Low during the same week
We are still trading below the 92 - 94k big resistance, so I advise caution here

This week on $BTC will be defined by the way we exit the Monday range
So far Monday has been up-only from its low to its high, then we got an H1 downtrend that we are trying to break back to bullish now
Acceptance above Monday high = bullish week
Acceptance below Monday low = bearish week
Since we did not sweep either Monday high or low on Tuesday, if we sweep it from Wednesday onwards the chances of a reversal to the other side of the Monday range are pretty low, so continuation is the likelier play

Rate cut probability right now is 48.9% according to FedWatch
This is very different than the last 2 FOMC meetings where the probability was over 95%, making those more likely to be priced in
With such even odds, nothing is priced in. Rate cuts would giga send $BTC, no rate cuts would nuke it

The Anatomy of a Range 📈
Let's study the PA on $BTC from the last week because it was incredibly clean, a perfect example of how a range should play out in theory
0. Establish a range after a heavy move down
1. Retest VAH from below as resistance
2. PoC acts as support
3. Deliver above range highs and range highs act as support on the retest
4. Sweep liquidity outside the range, against the HTF trend (down)
5. Fail to hold range highs as support
6. Fail to hold VAH as support -> this is where I caught a nice short
7. Retest range highs as resistance
8. VAH fails to hold as support
9. PoC hold

$BTC sits at a crossroad right now
Lose 104.5k and we go to 99k because this would be a LTF range deviation at range high
Accept above 107.5k and we go to 111k because this would be a HTF range deviation at range low