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Update. 💥 The war is not over. But a serious diplomatic process has begun.
#TrumpDelaysIranStrikeFiveDays
As a critical threshold is crossed in the US-Iran tension that has been ongoing for weeks in the Middle East, Donald Trump's recent statements have brought the question of "is the war ending?" to the forefront of the agenda. In his statement, Trump said, "We won the war. The war in Iran is won," arguing that the military process has effectively concluded successfully and dismissing reports of ongoing conflict as "fake." However, developments on the ground and diplomatic activity indicate that the situation is not so clear. While the US administration has temporarily suspended planned attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, no official statement has been made regarding the complete cessation of military operations. This has led to interpretations that the war is not over, but has been slowed down in a controlled manner. Details of the talks between Washington and Iran have begun to leak to the international press. According to Israeli-based sources, in contacts mediated by Israel, the parties are working on a one-month temporary ceasefire. During this period, a comprehensive agreement package consisting of approximately 15 points is being negotiated. The leaked draft includes extremely heavy obligations for Iran, such as the large-scale elimination of its nuclear capabilities, the transfer of enriched uranium to the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the decommissioning of critical facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. In return, the US would lift sanctions on Iran and support its civilian nuclear programs. The plan also includes Iran ceasing its support for proxy forces in the region, keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, and limiting its ballistic missile program. These provisions are not only military but also have the potential to fundamentally alter regional power balances. Trump's statement that "Iran gave us a very large gift of oil and gas" has raised the possibility of a concession or agreement in the energy sector. This statement indicates that the negotiations have an economic dimension as well as a security one. Nevertheless, the Tehran administration is cautious about claims of a comprehensive agreement with the US and has not officially confirmed it. According to experts, this situation reveals that a full agreement has not yet been reached between the parties and that the process is fragile.
In conclusion, the current picture shows not that a war has definitively ended; rather, it indicates a controlled reduction in military tension, but also that a high-risk and complex diplomatic negotiation is underway. The coming days will determine whether this process will lead to a genuine peace agreement or evolve into a renewed escalation of conflict.