On Friday, natural gas futures (December Delivery) surged 2.48%, reaching a one-week high. What's behind this? Meteorological agencies forecast a widespread drop in temperatures in the U.S. at the end of November and the beginning of December, which means heating demand is set to soar.
Positive signals from the supply side
Last week, the EIA report showed a dramatic drop in natural gas inventories by 1.4 billion cubic feet (bcf), exceeding the expected 1.2 bcf and significantly lower than the five-year average (+1.2 bcf increase). It seems that inventories are being consumed rapidly.
But the production end is under great pressure.
The EIA has just raised its 2025 U.S. natural gas production forecast by 1%, reaching 1.0767 trillion cubic feet per day. U.S. production is now approaching historical highs, and the number of rigs has reached a two-year high. On Friday, the dry gas production in the lower 48 states was 111.1 bcf/day, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year.
Weak demand is a hidden concern.
Interestingly, the demand for natural gas actually decreased on the same day: the demand in the lower 48 states was only 82.

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