#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Non-farm Payrolls Land Calmly, Market Awaits a Bigger Storm
On Friday evening (January 9), the US December non-farm employment data was supposed to be this week’s grand finale. However, the market reaction after the data release was relatively muted, and Bitcoin’s price did not experience the expected sharp unilateral move. This is not because the data is unimportant, but because market attention has been fully captured by another event with greater uncertainty. According to institutional analysis, although this data did not trigger intense volatility, the resilience of the US economy revealed within it further solidifies the expectation that the Federal Reserve is not eager to cut interest rates in March. This continues to create a “headwind” for risk assets on a macro level. The true “eye of the storm” has shifted to the Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of Trump’s global tariffs, originally scheduled for Friday but postponed to January 14 (next Wednesday).
The market generally believes that if the tariffs are ruled illegal, the US Treasury may need to refund importers up to $133 billion to $140 billion, which would significantly impact global dollar liquidity, far exceeding the influence of a single economic data point. Therefore, the calm on Friday is more like a prelude to a major battle—an anticipation and waiting period.
The short-term (next week) market direction is almost entirely dependent on the Supreme Court’s ruling on January 14.
● If the ruling rejects the tariffs: it could be seen as a major positive for liquidity release, potentially boosting global risk assets including cryptocurrencies, and pushing Bitcoin to test $94,000 or higher resistance.
● If the ruling upholds the tariffs: it means current policies and trade uncertainties will continue, and the market may remain volatile within the current range, paying closer attention to subsequent economic data to gauge Federal Reserve policy.
● Key support levels: regardless of the news, Bitcoin at $89,200 and Ethereum at $3,000 (and deeper at $2,800) remain critical positions. Maintaining these levels is essential for the market to stay in an optimistic structure.
Operational notes to watch:
1. Prioritize risk control, downplay predictions: Before major events, market sentiment is highly volatile. Keep positions at comfortable levels to avoid being wiped out in fluctuations.
2. Focus on support, follow the trend: Use $89,200 (BTC) and $3,000 (ETH) as short-term bullish defense lines. Be cautiously optimistic above these levels; if broken, switch to a defensive stance.
3. Be patient for directional signals: True trend opportunities often emerge after uncertainty is resolved. After the January 14 ruling, the market is likely to choose a short-term direction, providing a clearer window for trend-following operations.
A week of calm is about gathering strength, not losing direction. The crypto world is deeply intertwined with macro political and economic developments!
On Friday evening (January 9), the US December non-farm employment data was supposed to be this week’s grand finale. However, the market reaction after the data release was relatively muted, and Bitcoin’s price did not experience the expected sharp unilateral move. This is not because the data is unimportant, but because market attention has been fully captured by another event with greater uncertainty. According to institutional analysis, although this data did not trigger intense volatility, the resilience of the US economy revealed within it further solidifies the expectation that the Federal Reserve is not eager to cut interest rates in March. This continues to create a “headwind” for risk assets on a macro level. The true “eye of the storm” has shifted to the Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of Trump’s global tariffs, originally scheduled for Friday but postponed to January 14 (next Wednesday).
The market generally believes that if the tariffs are ruled illegal, the US Treasury may need to refund importers up to $133 billion to $140 billion, which would significantly impact global dollar liquidity, far exceeding the influence of a single economic data point. Therefore, the calm on Friday is more like a prelude to a major battle—an anticipation and waiting period.
The short-term (next week) market direction is almost entirely dependent on the Supreme Court’s ruling on January 14.
● If the ruling rejects the tariffs: it could be seen as a major positive for liquidity release, potentially boosting global risk assets including cryptocurrencies, and pushing Bitcoin to test $94,000 or higher resistance.
● If the ruling upholds the tariffs: it means current policies and trade uncertainties will continue, and the market may remain volatile within the current range, paying closer attention to subsequent economic data to gauge Federal Reserve policy.
● Key support levels: regardless of the news, Bitcoin at $89,200 and Ethereum at $3,000 (and deeper at $2,800) remain critical positions. Maintaining these levels is essential for the market to stay in an optimistic structure.
Operational notes to watch:
1. Prioritize risk control, downplay predictions: Before major events, market sentiment is highly volatile. Keep positions at comfortable levels to avoid being wiped out in fluctuations.
2. Focus on support, follow the trend: Use $89,200 (BTC) and $3,000 (ETH) as short-term bullish defense lines. Be cautiously optimistic above these levels; if broken, switch to a defensive stance.
3. Be patient for directional signals: True trend opportunities often emerge after uncertainty is resolved. After the January 14 ruling, the market is likely to choose a short-term direction, providing a clearer window for trend-following operations.
A week of calm is about gathering strength, not losing direction. The crypto world is deeply intertwined with macro political and economic developments!
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