Why are retail investors especially prone to "water reversal"?
Compared to institutional and professional traders, retail investors often have the following characteristics:
Almost all are active orders
Order sizes are concentrated
Pace is not discreet, no order splitting
No hedging mechanisms
In highly liquid mainstream coins, these effects may be offset by other trading pairs; but in small altcoins, your orders are often the main market signals in a short period.
In other words, in small coin markets, you are very likely to directly become the counterparty to market makers.

Almost all mainstream institutions have set year-end target prices above $150,000 by early 2025, with an average expectation reaching $170,000, implying an annual increase of over 200%. For example, Tom Lee (Fundstrat) publicly discussed a potential target of $250,000, HCWainwright forecasted a year-end target of $225,000, and VanEck also provided a target of $180,000. The average deviation among these aggressive forecasts exceeds 80%.
Consensus trap.
When 90% of analysts are talking about "ETF inflows," this bullish factor has actually been fully recognized by the market and already reflected

Ray Dalio said:
"Making money your goal is meaningless because money has no intrinsic value. The value of money comes from what it can buy, but money cannot buy everything. A smarter approach is to first determine what you truly want, what your real goals are, and then think about what you need to do to achieve those goals."
"Money is just one thing you need, but when you have the money necessary to achieve what you truly want, it is no longer the only thing you need, and it certainly isn't the most important thing."

Jameson Lopp, co-founder of Casa, recently proposed that upgrading Bitcoin to meet the standards capable of resisting quantum attacks in the "post-quantum era" may take 5 to 10 years. He emphasized that Bitcoin is facing a typical collective action problem.
"Making thorough modifications to the agreement and completing an unprecedented capital migration would easily require 5 to 10 years of time."
The lack of quick updates from the CEO means that every change to Bitcoin must go through consensus voting by global miners, node operators, and developers. This deliberately slowed mechanism constit

Michael Saylor once proposed the "Bitcoin Quantum Leap" perspective on the X platform, emphasizing that quantum computing does not necessarily lead to the collapse of Bitcoin, but may instead become an important turning point in driving the evolution of the Bitcoin network.
In his view, through the necessary technological upgrades, Bitcoin can not only enhance the overall security level but also potentially reshape its actual circulation and supply structure.
In a conversation with Alex Thorn, Saylor pointed out that the nature of quantum threats is not merely a cryptographic issue, but a test

Despite Bitcoin experiencing a decline of over 30% in the past 10 weeks, causing many investors to feel anxious, on-chain data shows that the spark of a bullish trend does not seem to have been extinguished.
According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin's "Realized Cap" currently remains firmly at a historical high of $1.125 trillion, indicating that there has not been a large-scale withdrawal of funds from the market, and suggesting that the bull market structure remains solid.
Unlike the commonly watched "Market Cap" (current price x total circulating supply), this on-chain indicator is more valuable

The report indicates that long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin, after a two-year period of large-scale selling, are approaching saturation in selling pressure. As early investors' profit-taking pressure gradually diminishes, on-chain selling pressure is expected to ease significantly, potentially bringing a turning point to the market.

Approximately 60 million people die each year worldwide (based on a total global population of about 8 billion);
There are about 500 million Crypto holders globally (equivalent to 1 in every 16 people holding Crypto);
Since Crypto holders tend to be younger than the global average population, their mortality rate is also lower, with a conservative estimate of about 0.2% annually;
Based on this, approximately 1 million people (500 million × 0.2%) will pass away each year.
Currently, most Crypto assets are still held privately, and holders rarely have estate plans in place. Even if only 10% of d

For a long time, the biggest pain point for global investors (especially non-U.S. domestic investors) using U.S. stock brokers has been depositing funds.
The traditional wire transfer path is: local bank currency purchase -> SWIFT cross-border transfer -> intermediary bank -> U.S. receiving bank -> broker account. This process not only involves high fees (wire transfer fee + intermediary fee), but is also limited by bank working hours and the inefficiency of the SWIFT system, typically taking 1-3 business days.
Interactive Brokers' introduction of stablecoin deposits is essentially leveraging

Consensus Trap: When "Bulls" Lose Marginal Effects
9 institutions coincidentally bet on "ETF inflows," forming a highly homogeneous predictive logic.
When a certain factor is fully recognized by the market and reflected in the price, it loses its marginal driving force. By early 2025, ETF inflow expectations have been fully priced in, and every investor knows this "bullish" factor; the price has already reacted in advance. The market needs "unexpected" news, not "expected" ones.
ETF inflows for the year fell short of expectations, with net ETF outflows of $3.48-4.3 billion in November. More im

Madman says…
The Bank of Japan will decide this week whether to raise interest rates on the yen. Currently, on Polymarket, the odds of a rate hike are as high as 98%, which means that a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this week is almost a certainty.
What impact does this have on Bitcoin? Looking at Japan’s recent rate hikes:
March 2024 (ending negative interest rates);
July 2024 (raising to 0.25%);
January 2025 (raising to 0.5%);
This time (raising to 0.75%) with a 98% probability.
The impact on Bitcoin during the previous three hikes was basically negligible, with no significant downward tren

Ripple Labs, after resolving the regulatory dispute with the U.S. SEC, is not only actively applying for federal banking licenses but also advancing the infrastructure development of its stablecoin RLUSD. Although the XRP price has risen, its actual application and economic benefits still face challenges.

FxPro senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich pointed out that since November 21, there have indeed been signs of Bitcoin's local highs and lows gradually rising, but he emphasized that to confirm a rebound turning into actual capital growth, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization must break through $3.32 trillion, about 6% higher than the current market cap of $3.16 trillion.

Bitcoin has fallen from $126,000 to the current $90,000, a 28.57% crash.
Market panic, liquidity shortages, and deleveraging pressures are making everyone breathless. Coinglass data shows that the fourth quarter experienced significant forced liquidation events, greatly weakening market liquidity.
But at the same time, some structural positive developments are converging: the U.S. SEC is about to introduce the "Innovation Exemption" rule, expectations for the Federal Reserve entering a rate cut cycle are becoming stronger, and global institutional channels are rapidly maturing.
This is the big

The world's largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, experienced a series of new highs and sharp sell-offs in 2025. After such rollercoaster movements, it may face its first annual decline since 2022.
According to Reuters, major global stock indices have also been volatile this year, reaching new highs only to retreat amid concerns over tariffs, interest rates, and a potential AI bubble. Although the overall stock market has mostly maintained an upward trend since the beginning of the year, the correlation between Bitcoin and stock prices has also noticeably strengthened this year.

Although Bitcoin's recent decline has been startling, K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde stated that December could actually become a turning point for the crypto market. After experiencing the sharpest correction since the last bear market, K33 believes that current signs indicate the probability of a "rebound from the bottom" is much higher than that of another crash.

Repost
Last week, the US Federal Reserve officially ended its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy. Coupled with market expectations of an imminent rate cut, both the US stock market and the crypto market rebounded sharply in the latter part of the week, shaking off the early-week downturn. BTC also returned to the $90,000 level, and ETH climbed back to $3,000. On Sunday, the crypto market continued to experience liquidation events: Bitcoin first suddenly plunged to $87,000, then rebounded to $91,000, resulting in a wipeout for both long and short positions. After the liquidations, looking at

The valuation of the crypto market is mainly driven by "monetary premium," with BTC firmly holding the dominant position. Alternative L1s, due to a lack of substantial revenue and long-term underperformance compared to BTC, are losing market confidence; in the future, L1 valuations may continue to compress, and market share will flow towards Bitcoin.

According to data compiled for CNBC by CoinDesk Data, despite Bitcoin’s significant volatility, data analysis shows that the price fluctuations in Bitcoin’s past cycles indicate that the current price movements are all part of Bitcoin’s normal operating pattern. Additionally, after these fluctuations, there is often an entirely new phase of price rebound.
Reviewing Bitcoin’s performance this year, after dropping to a low of around $80,000 at the end of November, it rebounded. When Bitcoin briefly fell below $81,000, it had dropped about 36% compared to the historical high of around $126,000 in

Glassnode's latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin's current market structure is similar to Q1 2022. ETF fund flows are negative, spot trading volume is shrinking, and the $96.1K to $106K range has become a key support level.