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BTC_POWER_LA
With 93 K we are at about 19 % from the power law.
Given the Bitcoin volatility, this is pretty remarkable. Even without a bull market, we are still growing as the power law predicts over the long run.
Given the Bitcoin volatility, this is pretty remarkable. Even without a bull market, we are still growing as the power law predicts over the long run.
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I'm actually impressed by the ability of Bitcoin to spring back from these surgical liquidity sweeps.
The power law daily slopes (lower panel) are going back to their average, which we followed for 16 years.
The critical pulse signal (upper panel) shows a white line that means a change of state is happening, but we will need the two main signals to separate to confirm a full change of state.
The power law daily slopes (lower panel) are going back to their average, which we followed for 16 years.
The critical pulse signal (upper panel) shows a white line that means a change of state is happening, but we will need the two main signals to separate to confirm a full change of state.
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Bitcoin Critical Pulse, #10 12/2/2025
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At 2:00 PM Central European Time or 8 AM EST, we will have another "Bitcoin Complexity Pulse" with Chris and GIovanni.
We will discuss the current market situation using tools from complexity science.
The show will be here on X, YouTube, and Twitch.
We will discuss the current market situation using tools from complexity science.
The show will be here on X, YouTube, and Twitch.
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The power law is our best hope.
People will beg in a few years that Bitcoin continues to follow the power law.
People will beg in a few years that Bitcoin continues to follow the power law.
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Great article by the Scientific Bitcoin Institute vice-director.
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The system wants to return to the mean slope value, but strong manipulations are pushing down the price.
You can do this just a few times until the system springs back with vengeance.
You can do this just a few times until the system springs back with vengeance.
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Self-organized criticality==power laws== optimization.
Bitcoin has followed the most optimal path, a power law.
That is the significance of the power law.
Bitcoin has followed the most optimal path, a power law.
That is the significance of the power law.
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Anything can change.
Even the orbit of the Earth is not guaranteed with absolute certainty. We know it will remain stable for millions of years, yet the long-term dynamics of the solar system are so complex that tiny measurement errors can amplify over enormous timescales. Given enough time, the Earth could theoretically drift out of the solar system.
But within a reasonable level of confidence, we consider the orbit stable — and we build our entire civilization on that assumption.
Buying Bitcoin would be pointless if we expected the Earth to be flung into interstellar darkness within a few ye
Even the orbit of the Earth is not guaranteed with absolute certainty. We know it will remain stable for millions of years, yet the long-term dynamics of the solar system are so complex that tiny measurement errors can amplify over enormous timescales. Given enough time, the Earth could theoretically drift out of the solar system.
But within a reasonable level of confidence, we consider the orbit stable — and we build our entire civilization on that assumption.
Buying Bitcoin would be pointless if we expected the Earth to be flung into interstellar darkness within a few ye
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Bitcoin Live with the Power Law & Minotaur Team, #26 11/27/2025
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Bitcoin is a self-critical system made of the interaction of agents at all possible scales (from individuals to large institutions and even nation states) and machines in a social-technological network.
Power laws are just natural in such systems.
Power laws are just natural in such systems.
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Farro for dinner. It is one of the foods that fed Roman Legions.
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Which other questions should we ask ChatGPT about this graph? Please give suggestions.
1) Why is the real path one of the “good” ones?
Because:
Unviable trajectories die out (economic natural selection)
Real-world feedback forces push toward the attractor
High-probability region is centered around the median
Bitcoin is a self-stabilizing socio-technical organism
2) Why are bubbles bigger than crashes?
Because:
Bubbles have unbounded positive feedback
Bottoms have bounded negative feedback thanks to cost of production
Human psychology amplifies upside more than downside
1) Why is the real path one of the “good” ones?
Because:
Unviable trajectories die out (economic natural selection)
Real-world feedback forces push toward the attractor
High-probability region is centered around the median
Bitcoin is a self-stabilizing socio-technical organism
2) Why are bubbles bigger than crashes?
Because:
Bubbles have unbounded positive feedback
Bottoms have bounded negative feedback thanks to cost of production
Human psychology amplifies upside more than downside
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I also asked this question about the graph below.
Why are the peaks asymmetric relative to the bottoms?
Why do peaks deviate a lot above the median but bottoms rarely deviate far below it?**
This is a deep question about Bitcoin’s bimodal distribution and the asymmetry of human behavior under gain vs. loss.
There are four primary reasons.
✔ Reason A — Positive feedback in bubbles is stronger than negative feedback in crashes
During bubbles:
new adopters flood in
leverage increases
liquidity increases
miners hold coin (reduced sell pressure)
global attention spikes
price reacts super-linearly
T
Why are the peaks asymmetric relative to the bottoms?
Why do peaks deviate a lot above the median but bottoms rarely deviate far below it?**
This is a deep question about Bitcoin’s bimodal distribution and the asymmetry of human behavior under gain vs. loss.
There are four primary reasons.
✔ Reason A — Positive feedback in bubbles is stronger than negative feedback in crashes
During bubbles:
new adopters flood in
leverage increases
liquidity increases
miners hold coin (reduced sell pressure)
global attention spikes
price reacts super-linearly
T
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I asked ChatGPT 5.1 this question about the Monte Carlo simulation showing the power law as the median of all possible paths.
Why, among millions of possible simulated paths — many of which do NOT oscillate around the power law — does the real Bitcoin path happen to be one of the “nice” ones?
This is the most important conceptual question, and the answer involves probability distribution geometry, large-deviation theory, and conditioning on survival of a real socio-economic system.
✔ Reason 1 — Most simulated paths are mathematically possible but not economically viable.
The simulation produc
Why, among millions of possible simulated paths — many of which do NOT oscillate around the power law — does the real Bitcoin path happen to be one of the “nice” ones?
This is the most important conceptual question, and the answer involves probability distribution geometry, large-deviation theory, and conditioning on survival of a real socio-economic system.
✔ Reason 1 — Most simulated paths are mathematically possible but not economically viable.
The simulation produc
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