AxelAdlerJr

Global market sentiment this morning

Gold fell to $4,620 per ounce from $5,546, extending losses from the previous session after the sharpest drop in more than a decade. Market pressure intensified amid reports that US President Donald Trump is considering nominating Kevin Warsh, seen as a more hawkish choice, to lead the Federal Reserve.

Bitcoin Stress Index at Peak: Market Absorbs the ShockNew ☕️Adler AM 👇

The derivatives market showed a cascade of forced closures: over the past 24 hours, long liquidations reached extreme levels amid a sharp price drop to $82.9K. At the same time, Funding Rate remains in positive territory, which may indicate sustained demand for long exposure and incomplete deleveraging.☕️ Adler AM 👇

Great product, but very few stars.

Clear LTH accumulation is visible on the weekly timeframe.

This MVRV dashboard shows the market as it really is:where the crowd is in pain and where the edge is forming.Full breakdown of the Cohort MVRV Framework and actionable trade insights:

New Record Derivatives Pressure, but Price HoldsThe Market Pressure Index has dropped to 30.5 - a new 30-day low. Price remains at $88.3K. Someone large is absorbing record selling pressure around the $86.4K support.new ☕️Adler AM 👇

This is the way.

Think experienced players don\'t get scared? You\'re mistaken. The higher the metric peak, the more aggressive the selling from old hands.

Miners survived capitulation and are starting to "recover." Reversal signal 📉📈?

83 days without Bull Mode. The last time Trend Pulse showed both signals positive was November 2, 2025 at $110K. Since then - only failed recoveries that never got trend confirmation.\n\n☕️Adler AM 👇+ 🎧Audio Debate\n\n

The market needs a reset after three years of growth - and it has already begun. Today we break down MVRV - the key on-chain metric that reveals the market’s true state: overheated, fair value, or opportunity zone. This is the foundation for understanding the cycle and making informed decisions on entries and profit-taking.\n\nOn-Chain Fundamentals for Humans | Part 5 👇\n\n

Trump said there is a framework for future arrangements on Greenland and Arctic security and linked this to his decision not to impose tariffs from February 1. Among the goals he outlined are security, access to critical minerals, and elements of missile defense. \n\nMarkets interpreted this as de-escalation: tensions eased and the current regime remains BALANCED.

+17K BTC flowed into exchanges in the 48 hours leading up to the breakdown.\n\nNew ☕️Adler AM 👇\n\n

The market is now classified as High Stress.
This is the phase where noise dominates, trends break, and most participants get chopped.
Yesterday I published a detailed breakdown of this model on Substack - what it measures, when it works, and where it fails. Read it before you misread this market.

Macro improved slightly vs yesterday. But the market is still a coin flip.
Risk score moved to +0.65. Regime is BALANCED, not bullish. Rates are neutral. Curve is steep. SPX remains in a bear trend. Signal quality is weak. Noise still dominates trend.

$90K - STH Defense Line: Hold or Capitulation
Lose this zone and two cohorts go underwater at once.
That is where real selling pressure usually begins.
Morning Brief #88 👇 + 🎧 Audio Debate

Current Status + Model 👇
Market Regime: Correction
STH ZoneStress (0.90-0.95)