#加密资产监管趋势 The latest policy developments indicate that domestic regulation of crypto assets is tightening. The former Vice President of the Bank of China explicitly stated the need to curb virtual currencies, including stablecoins, and the Chairman of the CSRC also emphasized a cautious approach to new business models. These signals suggest a stricter regulatory stance, and short-term growth for crypto assets is unlikely. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent policy developments and assess their impact on on-chain capital flows. At the same time, attention should be paid to overseas

#美国经济指标分析 Analyzing the expectation that the US unemployment rate in November will remain stable at 4.4%, it can be seen that the labor market remains relatively resilient. Although this level is higher than the pre-pandemic historical low, it still falls within a relatively low range. Staying stable suggests that the economy may be soft-landing, avoiding a sharp downturn. However, it is important to monitor trends in the coming months and other economic indicators such as wage growth and labor force participation rate to fully assess the employment market and overall economic conditions. Thi

#比特币价格走势 By observing the forecast data on Polymarket, there is a clear divergence in Bitcoin price trends. Within three days, the probability of BTC rising again to $100,000 has decreased from 52% to 33%, while the probability of dropping below $80,000 has increased from 27% to 37%. This rapid shift in expectations reflects the market's emotional instability.
From on-chain data, the activity of large coin holder addresses has recently increased, but there are no obvious signals of concentrated buying or selling. Capital flows are showing a dispersal trend, with no clear dominant direction at

#全球经济前景分析 Analyzing the potential market impact of changes in the Federal Reserve Chairperson selection, I believe that if Haskett is elected, it will bring significant changes. He may push for more aggressive rate cuts, lowering interest rates to below 3% or even 1%, and restart quantitative easing. This dovish stance is expected to stimulate economic growth and be favorable for risk assets.
It is worth noting that Haskett has an open attitude towards cryptocurrencies, having served as an advisor to Coinbase and holding its stock. He believes Bitcoin could "rewrite financial rules," a view t

#加密货币监管 This regulatory statement is worth paying attention to. From on-chain data, there have indeed been some warning signs recently. Fund flow analysis shows that some large holders are trending towards withdrawal, and the frequency of contract interactions has also decreased. The tightening of regulatory attitudes may further impact market sentiment. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent policy developments and pay attention to changes in the concentration of holdings of mainstream tokens. For emerging projects, it is especially important to carefully assess their compliance and

Analyzing recent stablecoin market risks, it can be seen that China's attitude towards stablecoins has become very clear - a resolute halt. This decision considers multiple factors: firstly, USD stablecoins have already dominated the market, and the development of non-USD stablecoins is extremely limited. Secondly, there are many issues with US stablecoin legislation, which could backfire on stablecoins themselves. More importantly, promoting the development of the Renminbi stablecoin offers no advantages and may even threaten monetary sovereignty and financial security. Overall, China's choic

#美联储货币政策 Just saw that the US September core PCE Price Index annual rate was announced at 2.8%, below the expected 2.9% and the previous 2.9%. This data has a positive impact on market sentiment, with Bitcoin already rising by 1.06% in the short term, breaking through $91,000.
From on-chain data, this could trigger a wave of short-term capital inflows. It is recommended to closely monitor the movements of large wallets, especially those "whale" accounts that hold coins long-term. If they start increasing their holdings, it may indicate a larger-scale rally.
At the same time, I will track the

#加密货币安全事件 Stay closely tuned to CZ's views on the security of hardware wallets. He emphasizes that private keys must never leave the device, which is indeed the key to protecting user assets. Analysis shows that recent investments related to hardware wallets have increased, indicating the industry's focus on cold storage security. It is recommended to track the technical solutions of projects like OneKey and evaluate whether their private key protection mechanisms are sufficiently reliable. At the same time, be alert that even hardware wallets may have security vulnerabilities. We will contin

#加密货币监管发展 The Bank of Japan may raise its benchmark interest rate to 0.75% in December, which would be the highest level in nearly 30 years. This expectation has already boosted the Japanese yen exchange rate and could put potential pressure on high-leverage cryptocurrency positions. Data analysis shows that the yen's strengthening aligns with the macro risk-off trend in investment portfolios, potentially limiting Bitcoin's rebound momentum. Notably, Japan also plans to implement cryptocurrency tax reforms in 2026, unifying the trading profit tax rate at 20%. These policy changes could influe

#比特币市场结构分析 According to the Ethereum cost basis heatmap, the $3180 and $2800 levels indeed form significant resistance and support levels. These two regions each accumulated approximately 2.6 million ETH, indicating a high density of holders. This concentrated holding phenomenon often influences price movements in the short term.
If ETH is to break through the $3180 resistance, it may require more buying pressure. Conversely, if the support near $2800 is effectively broken, it could trigger further selling pressure. It is recommended to closely monitor the trading volume changes and large tra

The timing of the Federal Reserve's rate cut indeed has sparked some controversy. Based on data, the September PCE Price Index is expected to reach 2.8% year-over-year, the highest level since April 2024. While Hasset believes it is now time to cautiously cut rates, I think a careful assessment is still necessary.
The key lies in the direction of inflation data. If the September PCE data released tonight meets expectations or is slightly lower, it could provide some support for a rate cut. However, if it unexpectedly exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may continue to keep rates unchange

#加密货币预测市场发展 Analyzing Vitalik's proposed on-chain Gas futures market concept, this is undoubtedly a forward-looking proposal. From a data perspective, this mechanism can provide users with more transparent Gas fee expectations and help optimize trading strategies. However, implementation is not easy and requires consideration of factors such as market liquidity and oracle reliability. If successfully implemented, it will bring significant improvements to the Ethereum ecosystem. It is worth paying attention to its subsequent development, especially the potential impact on DeFi projects and lar

#美联储降息预期 Recent PCE inflation data shows inflation continues to ease, and the Fed's rate cut expectations are heating up. However, the crypto market has decoupled from the stock market, with BTC temporarily falling to around 87,000. Analysis indicates that this is mainly influenced by factors such as options expiration and MicroStrategy pressure, rather than the inflation data itself.
In the short term, the 89,000-90,700 range remains a key support level. As long as this range is maintained, BTC still has room to rise. Resistance levels are at 94,400 and 97,000. Currently, market panic has ea

#比特币价格走势分析 The recent trends in the Bitcoin market have attracted much attention. Analysis shows that during the recent pullback, some sovereign funds have begun to gradually buy Bitcoin, especially when the price dropped to the $80,000 range. This reflects institutional investors' confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value. Meanwhile, technical indicators show that Bitcoin has returned to a key support zone, and momentum indicators are improving. The next significant resistance level is around $100,000.
Although there are still some short-term pressures, now may be a good opportunity to buy on

#美联储利率政策 Pay attention to the release of September PCE data tonight, which will be a key indicator ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week. The overall PCE annual rate is expected to be 2.8%. If it meets or falls below expectations, it could support a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, if the data exceeds expectations, it may weaken the case for a rate cut. It is recommended to closely monitor capital flows and the movements of large investors to gauge the market's reaction to the PCE data. Additionally, pay attention to recent statements by Federal Reserve offi

#预测市场发展 This newly launched prediction market platform is worth paying attention to. From on-chain data, similar prediction market contracts have maintained good activity. Fanatics Markets is backed by a major sports merchandise giant and a well-known exchange, which could attract a large user base. I will continue to monitor its contract interactions and fund flows to observe whether there are abnormal signals such as whale large bets. If the platform performs well, it could drive the development of the entire prediction market sector, making it worthwhile to proactively invest in related pr

After analyzing recent on-chain data, it was found that the BWTS indicator shows a divergence pattern with the BTC price, which usually signals that the panic selling wave is about to end. Historical data indicates that such divergences are often precursors to market sentiment turning points. Although the false breakout after the Luna event raises caution, the current BWTS pattern is similar to previous ones, suggesting that the conditions for a rebound are in place. However, before the divergence is broken, caution and observation are still necessary. It is recommended to closely monitor larg

#比特币价格分析 Analyzing Polymarket data, the probability of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 by the end of the year has decreased from 52% to 50%, indicating a slight decline in market confidence. Meanwhile, the expectation of a high of $110,000 is only 15%, and the chance of dropping below $80,000 is 27%, reflecting a cautious current market sentiment.
These data suggest that Bitcoin prices may experience volatility in the short term. I recommend closely monitoring large fund flows, the movements of major wallet addresses, and changes in funding rates in the derivatives market, as these indicators can

#加密货币ETF发展 The first SUI ETF approval marks the further expansion of the crypto ETF market. Notably, this is a leveraged product, which is relatively rare among initial crypto ETF launches. From the data, 74 crypto ETFs have been launched this year, bringing the total to 128. Over the next 12 months, another 80 new products are expected to go live, demonstrating ongoing market enthusiasm for crypto assets.
This trend is worth paying attention to, but caution is also necessary. While leveraged ETFs offer higher potential returns, they also increase risks. For ordinary investors, it is recommen

#以太坊技术发展 Analyzing the changes in blob fees after the Fusaka upgrade, it was found that the main reason for the surge of 15 million times is the "minimum guarantee mechanism" introduced by EIP-7918. This design links blob fees to the L1 execution base fee, ensuring reasonable pricing for network resource usage. From a technical perspective, this not only better reflects actual costs but also allows for traffic regulation through price fluctuations to prevent congestion. It is worth noting that after blob fees are incorporated into the ETH burn mechanism, it is expected to significantly increa