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Current RMB Exchange Rate Situation Overview
The performance of the RMB in 2025 has been highly volatile. After three consecutive years of depreciation from 2022 to 2024, the RMB finally reversed its downward trend this year. As of late November, driven by positive factors such as the improvement in China-US trade relations and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, the RMB against the US dollar appreciated to below 7.08, even reaching a high of 7.0765, a new recent high.
Looking at the full-year performance, the USD to RMB exchange rate fluctuated within the 7.1 to 7.3 range, appreciating a total of 2.40%. The offshore market experienced even greater volatility, oscillating between 7.1 and 7.4, with a total appreciation of 2.80%, reflecting that the offshore RMB is more sensitive to international factors.
In the first half of the year, global trade policy uncertainties and a strengthening US dollar index once suppressed the RMB. The offshore RMB briefly fell below the 7.40 level, and the USD to RMB exchange rate hit a high not seen since 2015.

Cryptocurrency markets have experienced over 15 years of development, during which they have gone through multiple bull and bear cycles. Although each bear market is accompanied by sharp corrections, the continuous new highs in market participants and market capitalization confirm its true value. Therefore, whether from an asset allocation or risk hedging perspective, cryptocurrencies have become an important component of modern investment portfolios.
As the largest market cap crypto asset, Bitcoin attracts many short-term traders due to its high price volatility and quick market response. They aim to profit by capturing price fluctuations, but this trading approach also involves relatively higher risks.
Core Definition of Short-Term Trading
Bitcoin short-term trading mainly refers to buying and selling activities completed within a short period. Taking day trading as an example: if a trader buys Bitcoin at $20,000 and then sells it when the price rises to $20,050 on the same day, this constitutes a short-term trade.
It is important to note that,

Friday, December 12(, the cryptocurrency market can be described as "some rejoice, some mourn." While gold and silver take turns hitting new highs, and U.S. stock indices turn red on Thursday, Bitcoin remains oscillating around the $90,000 mark, with a 24-hour price change of only -2.45%, and appears even weaker when valued in RMB. This unusual performance divergence is redefining the relationship between crypto assets and traditional finance.
Precious metals breaking out vs. Bitcoin stepping forward — where are the conflicting signals?
Thursday’s market shows a clear increase in global demand to hedge against fiat currency devaluation. Silver leads the way, breaking through the $64 historical high with a 5% increase; gold follows closely, approaching the $4,300 mark. The driving force behind these gains points in the same direction: a weakening dollar.
The US Dollar Index hit a low for the first time since mid-October, as the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday rate cut decision continued to suppress the dollar’s position. Logically, this should be the moment for Bitcoin to shine.

Does cutting interest rates really mean the US dollar will fall? Not necessarily.
By the end of 2024, the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate-cutting cycle, and the market generally believes the dollar will depreciate. But this is the easiest trap to fall into. The reality is much more complex — the dollar's movement depends on "who cuts faster, who cuts more," rather than the simple fact of rate cuts themselves.
According to the latest FOMC dot plot, the goal is to bring interest rates down to around 3% by 2026. But this does not mean the dollar will weaken unilaterally. Investors need to understand that the dollar market is extremely efficient; prices always lead expected changes.
Three key principles of USD exchange rate movement
Principle 1: Interest rate differentials are the direct drivers of exchange rates
The core logic of USD exchange rate movements is simple — whoever has higher interest rates, their currency is more valuable.
Rate cuts do not necessarily mean the dollar will weaken. When the Fed cuts rates, what truly impacts the dollar's strength is relative interest rates. For example:
- If the US cuts rates but Europe does not

Many people hear that saving stocks can help them retire early and earn stable income, so they start treating stocks like fixed deposits and gradually accumulate returns. This sounds very tempting—no need to watch the market every day, no advanced technical analysis skills required, just making money. But the reality is, saving stocks is not as magical as online hype suggests.
How many people have ended up earning dividends but losing their principal due to blind stock saving? How many have been forced to sell at a low point due to urgent cash needs, losing everything? These are not isolated cases.
Why is saving stocks not as easy as imagined?
Saving stocks sounds simple—buy quality stocks and hold them long-term, waiting to receive dividends each year. But behind this "passive income," there are four deadly flaws.
Flaw 1: No principal guarantee; earning interest while losing value is the norm
This is the point many people tend to overlook. Saving stocks does not equal saving money; bank fixed deposits come with a capital guarantee, but saving stocks do not.
A real-life example happened around me. In 2021, a blockbuster movie (

The essence of investment is ROI, which stands for Return on Investment, measuring the ratio of profit to invested capital. It is applicable to both individual and corporate decision-making. Different types of investments require different formulas to calculate ROI, considering factors such as income and costs. The annualized return rate can better compare the efficiency of different investment projects. Although ROI is important, it has limitations, such as ignoring the time factor and high risks. Investors should consider multiple factors comprehensively to make rational decisions.

Why do you always lose money?
"Got cut again." This phrase is like a curse in the investment circle. Every time the market reverses, someone in the community will complain about being harvested by the big players. But have you ever thought about why some people make money while others lose? The problem isn't luck; it's the way you play the game.
Retail investors, known as "Brother Chives," are like real chives—cut again and again, yet still waiting for the next growth. This isn't a curse; it's the reality of market operation.
How does harvesting chives happen?
Chives are vegetables, but they have become a synonym in the investment world. The reason is simple: they grow quickly, are resilient, and will regrow after being cut. Retail investors are like these chives—when funds are lost, new retail investors enter; when new retail investors lose, even newer ones continue to come in. Cycle after cycle, endlessly.
During the late bull market and the early bear market, big players (large investors and institutions) leverage their information advantage to sell at high points,

State-Level Bitcoin Adoption Accelerates
The landscape of governmental cryptocurrency acceptance has shifted dramatically. Texas has made a strategic financial commitment, securing $5 million worth of shares in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF during the recent market pullback, with an additional $5 million

Candidate Selection Power: Wash the Favorite, Market Bets on Independence
Trump is expected to announce his choice for the new Federal Reserve Chair in the first week of January, with the official transition taking place in May to succeed Powell. Among the candidates, former Fed Governor Wash has become the frontrunner, with White House economic advisor Hassett, current Board member Waller, and Boman also in consideration.
Wash's victory is primarily due to market concerns over the Fed's independence. Investors worry that Hassett's close ties to the White House could lead to aggressive rate cuts, fueling inflation expectations and pushing up long-term interest rates. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has publicly supported Wash. These concerns are not unfounded—since Hassett became the frontrunner in late November, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen from 4% to 4.2%. Trump aims to reduce the cost of U.S. debt financing, and the surge in bond yields runs counter to that goal, making Wash's independent background a "comfort factor."
Policy disagreements are brewing, 202

On December 23rd, the Japanese Yen exchange rate experienced intense fluctuations due to the Japanese government signaling strong intervention, which changed market expectations. Analysts believe that short-term intervention may occur when liquidity is slightly weaker, but long-term depreciation pressure still exists due to the US-Japan interest rate differential and delayed rate hike expectations. The market should pay attention to Japan's future economic policies and wage negotiations.

Inflation is the phenomenon of sustained rising prices leading to currency depreciation. Moderate inflation is beneficial to the economy, but excessive inflation can cause economic damage. Central banks curb high inflation by raising interest rates, and investors should diversify their assets with stocks, gold, and US dollars to hedge against inflation risks and seize market opportunities.

The Chinese Renminbi has recently performed strongly, with the USD to RMB exchange rate dropping to a one-year low, driven by a combination of Federal Reserve rate cuts and Chinese policy guidance. The People's Bank of China controls the exchange rate increase through the central parity rate and frequently purchases US dollars, restoring international confidence. The internationalization of the RMB is accelerating, with daily trading volumes significantly increasing. Goldman Sachs expects the RMB to continue appreciating, helping to boost China's economy and international financial standing.

Last week, the US dollar index declined, and non-US currencies generally rose, especially the euro, which hit a three-month high. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut are high, affecting the USD/JPY trend. Analysis predicts that by 2026, USD/JPY may break through 160, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Japanese policy changes.

In the early days of the cryptocurrency market, the term "Coin" was primarily used to refer to Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dogecoin, and similar assets. It wasn't until the advent of Ethereum that the concept of "Token" became widespread, leading to confusion among many investors about the difference between the two. In fact, understanding the Chinese meanings of Coin and Token is crucial for making informed crypto asset investments.
Fundamental Difference: Does it Have an Independent Blockchain?
The core distinction between Coin and Token lies in the underlying infrastructure.
Coins have their own blockchain and are the native assets of that network. Bitcoin operates on the Bitcoin blockchain, and Ether operates on the Ethereum blockchain; these are the foundational elements of their respective public chains.
Tokens are entirely different—they do not have their own blockchain but are built on existing public blockchain ecosystems. Since Ethereum introduced the ERC-20 standard in 2015, anyone can issue their own .

The short-selling mechanism in the market is an important trading tool relative to going long. Short selling involves borrowing assets to sell, then buying back at a lower price to profit. It can suppress bubbles, enhance liquidity, and hedge risks. Different short-selling tools such as margin lending, contracts for difference (CFDs), futures, and inverse ETFs each have their advantages and disadvantages, suitable for different investors. Although short selling carries significant risks, such as unlimited losses, it requires rational operation. Investors should understand market conditions and risks before deciding whether to participate.

The article analyzes the fundamental logic and historical evolution of the US dollar exchange rate, pointing out that the recent weakness of the US Dollar Index is due to US employment data falling short of expectations and increased market expectations of interest rate cuts. Based on the future trends of major currency pairs, it is expected that the US dollar will struggle to strengthen by 2025, and attention should be paid to changes in Federal Reserve policies. In the short term, it is recommended to engage in swing trading, while in the medium to long term, shifting to non-USD assets is advised to hedge against potential dollar depreciation risks.