#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

On-chain indicators cannot predict specific price points, but they can send clear "resonance signals" at the bottom area. Looking back at the last three bear markets, the patterns are clear:

In the 2018 deep bear market, BTC dropped to $3,200, MVRV fell below 0.7, and market valuation entered the "bankruptcy zone"; at the same time, SOPR (Realized Profit and Loss Ratio) briefly dropped to 0.86, indicating an average on-chain trading loss of 14%, a classic "panic capitulation" signal. Meanwhile, the supply from long-term holders did not decrease, indicating that "believers" were quietly accumulating.

During the March 2020 "Black Swan" crash, BTC plummeted to $3,800, and MVRV instantly fell below 0.85. Most importantly, short-term holder SOPR was well below 1, showing that new speculators had been thoroughly wiped out. At the same time, the number of whale addresses holding over 10,000 BTC increased against the trend, confirming that smart money was bottom-fishing amid extreme panic.

After the FTX collapse in 2022, BTC dropped to $15,400. MVRV again touched a historic low of 0.8, while the supply from long-term holders remained stable at a high of 13.8 million coins, indicating that core hoarders "held firm" and the bottom support was very solid. Meanwhile, miner capitulation indicators triggered, confirming the characteristics of the late bear market.

The practical core points can be summarized as three:

Valuation bottomed: MVRV entered the "deep value zone" of 0.7-0.9;

Emotional collapse: SOPR (especially short-term holder SOPR) remained below 1, indicating panic capitulation exhausted;

Chips turnover: Long-term holders stopped selling and began accumulating, or held their positions steadily.

Final warning: These signals collectively outline the "bottom area," but cannot eliminate the uncertainty of "bottoming time." History shows that after indicator resonance, the market often requires several months of oscillation and turnover. For ordinary investors, when these three signals appear, it means the time for strategic positioning has arrived, and what is needed next is patience to endure cycles.