Trump's "5-Day Window" Sparks Market Rally: Oil and Gold Plunge, BTC Rebounds

Jia Zhu, Golden Finance

On March 23, 2026, the global major asset markets experienced a rare synchronized sharp fluctuation, with crude oil, gold, and cryptocurrencies prices fluctuating significantly in a short period, and market sentiment rapidly shifting.

The core trigger for this market movement came from Trump’s latest statements regarding the Middle East situation.

1. Trump’s Statement Causes Major Market Fluctuations

Yesterday, news that Trump delayed a military strike on Iran by five days directly caused significant market volatility.

On March 23, U.S. President Trump posted on social media: “I am pleased to report that the United States and Iran have had very good and productive discussions over the past two days to fully resolve our hostile actions in the Middle East. Based on the tone and atmosphere of these in-depth, detailed, and constructive talks (which will continue this week), I have instructed the Department of Defense to postpone all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, depending on whether ongoing meetings and discussions can succeed. Thank you all for your attention to this matter!”

Trump indicated that an agreement with Iran could be reached within five days, or even sooner.

As a result, international oil prices plummeted sharply, with Brent crude futures dropping over 14% at one point to around $96 per barrel. WTI crude and European natural gas prices also declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened up 1.6%, the S&P 500 rose 1.4%, and the Nasdaq increased 1.6%. Tech stocks surged, with NVIDIA (NVDA.O) up 2%.

However, Iran directly denied Trump’s claims.

According to Fars News Agency, sources said Iran and the U.S. have had no direct contact or communication through intermediaries. After learning that Iran would target all power plants in the Middle East, Trump chose to back down.

2. Details of Crude Oil, Gold, and Crypto Market Movements

1. Crude Oil

Brent crude hit a low of $97.08 yesterday, down 17.92% from the high of $118.27 on March 19. It has since rebounded slightly to $104.31, up 7.45% from yesterday’s low.

The recent sharp fluctuations in oil prices were mainly influenced by Trump’s remarks. His initial easing of geopolitical tensions led markets to expect a de-escalation in the Middle East, quickly reducing risk premiums and causing oil prices to plunge. But then Iran denied progress in talks, dampening expectations of de-escalation, and the price decline narrowed.

Currently, the U.S. and Iran remain at odds.

An Iranian senior official stated that Trump has no authority to set conditions or deadlines for negotiations. The official said Iran and the U.S. have exchanged messages through Egypt and Turkey to ease tensions, but the U.S. has yet to accept Iran’s two core demands: compensation for damages and acknowledgment of violations. Regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and laying mines, Iran is still considering options for potential actions.

This morning, Iran reported that the U.S. and Israel attacked two energy infrastructure sites in central Isfahan and southwestern Khorramshahr. The gas company building and gas pressure reduction station in Isfahan were hit, damaging some facilities and nearby residences. The gas pipeline at Khorramshahr power plant was also targeted, but no casualties occurred.

The Middle East situation has not yet substantially eased, especially the critical Strait of Hormuz, where transportation risks remain. Given ongoing supply uncertainties, oil prices are likely to stay high in the short term, with continued high volatility.

2. Gold

On March 23, spot gold fell below $4,100 per ounce for the first time since November 24 last year, dropping sharply by 8.6 intraday. It has since rebounded slightly to $4,332.48, still below the previous peak of over $5,000.

Gold’s recent performance has been notably weaker than traditional expectations, with its safe-haven attributes not fully evident.

Trump’s easing of geopolitical risks increased short-term selling pressure; the Federal Reserve signaled a hawkish stance, reinforcing market expectations of prolonged high interest rates, which raises real yields and suppresses non-yielding assets like gold; oil price volatility also strengthened the dollar temporarily, further pressuring gold prices.

On March 24, BIT Official released daily chart analysis stating that gold is experiencing its first significant correction in recent years, falling to around $4,400. It is expected that this zone will start attracting buying interest, with stronger support possibly around $3,500.

In the short term, markets are repricing higher interest rate paths and inflation expectations, pushing up real yields—generally bearish for gold. However, this may be only temporary and not a fundamental change in medium-term outlook.

From a medium to long-term perspective, sovereign debt expansion remains a key structural factor supporting gold demand. As governments increase borrowing to cope with geopolitical uncertainties, defense spending, and broader fiscal policies, this trend could intensify. Under this backdrop, prices below $4,400 may increasingly attract long-term investors.

Shaokai Fan, head of global central banks at the World Gold Council, pointed out that gold’s role as a hedge against de-dollarization and geopolitical risks is expected to prompt central banks that have been absent from the market to buy this precious metal this year. In recent months, some new central banks—long inactive or absent from gold markets—are entering. He believes this trend may continue into 2026.

3. Cryptocurrencies

Crypto markets started rising last night. As of now, BTC is up 3.6% in 24 hours, at $70,592.98. ETH increased 4.1%, at $2,139.39; SOL up 4.6%, at $90.50.

Also influenced by Trump’s remarks, market expectations for Middle East conflict eased, boosting global risk appetite. Funds are flowing out of traditional safe assets into high-risk assets like BTC, leading to an overall upward trend in crypto markets.

Overall, Trump’s statements disrupted geopolitical expectations and market risk appetite, amplifying volatility in crude oil, gold, and cryptocurrencies, reflecting high sensitivity to policy uncertainties.

3. Polymarket Re-Exposes Insider Trading, Will Market Rules Be Reshuffled?

On March 23, Trump told AFP in a phone interview that negotiations with Iran are “progressing very smoothly.” According to Trump, both sides are eager to reach an agreement. However, Iran denied any talks with the U.S. on the same day.

Bloomberg reported that just before Trump announced this, ten new accounts invested about $160,000 in Polymarket’s US-Iran ceasefire prediction market, betting that a ceasefire would be reached by March 31 or April 15. If the ceasefire occurs by the end of this month, these accounts could profit $1.04 million.

These accounts were discovered on Sunday by Lirrato on X and shared by Polymarket History. After Trump’s Monday post, these ten accounts’ positions gained over $300,000 in unrealized gains. An account named “NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS” drew attention due to its betting history. It was opened in late February, with initial bets of $7,600 on an attack on Iran before February 28, and $11,283 on an attack before March 1, totaling over $85,000 in winnings.

Currently, the account has bets of $8,005 on a US-Iran ceasefire before March 31, and $15,614 before April 15, with total value exceeding $30,000.

The scale, timing, and history of these bets raise questions: Are these Polymarket accounts linked to insiders with political connections to the U.S. or Iran, possibly holding inside information on current diplomacy?

On Monday, Kalshi and Polymarket announced new trading safeguards to address insider trading issues.

Kalshi stated it will proactively ban political candidates from trading using their campaigns and individuals involved in college and professional sports (such as athletes, staff, and referees). Polymarket said it will restrict certain market types, including those prone to manipulation or involving morally sensitive topics.

Ben Yorke, a former Cointelegraph research analyst, pointed out that the bets on Iran attacks suggest “someone has insider information,” as these bets were made at market prices and involved multiple accounts, apparently to conceal their identities.

On the same day, Democratic Senator Adam Schiff and Republican Senator John C. Cuttis proposed a bill banning certain “gambling-like” event contracts. The “Prediction Market as Gambling Act” would prohibit listing event contracts similar to sports betting or casino-style games by entities registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, including Kalshi and Polymarket.

“Sports prediction contracts are essentially sports betting, just under a different name. These contracts are available in all fifty states, which clearly violates state and federal laws,” the legislation states. It clarifies regulatory jurisdiction to ensure states can continue overseeing sports betting and casino gaming.

4. BTC Market Outlook

• Analyst Daan Crypto Trades said: “The $64,000 to $65,000 range is worth watching. Currently, the market is very worried about the latter, which is why most markets have experienced sharp sell-offs in recent days.”

• Rachael Lucas of BTC Markets noted: “The future of cryptocurrencies depends on de-escalation of the Iran conflict and Fed decisions. The surge in Brent crude prices ‘raises inflation expectations,’ with the Fed’s rate hike probability jumping from zero to 12.4% within a week. This is a major macro re-pricing, and until both are clarified, cryptocurrencies will continue to reflect these changes.” She added, “If the Iran conflict de-escalates, ‘cryptocurrencies will be among the fastest recovering risk assets.’ However, with no clear negotiation opponents or end date, short-term predictions are difficult. When market sentiment is so bearish and fundamentals are strong, history shows conditions for recovery are forming, even if timing remains uncertain.”

• CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said: “Bitcoin is currently trading near the 200-week moving average at $68,300, aligning with the ‘largest holder group (100-1000 BTC).’” He noted, “As long as the price stays above $68,000, the largest holder group can remain near cost basis. A drop below this level would indicate structural deterioration and could trigger more nervous reactions from major investors.”

Bitcoin’s price balances between the $10 and $100 range and the $100-$1,000 range. Source: CryptoQuant

• Analyst Stockmoney Lizards said: “BTC has again fallen below the EMA50, and the current global crisis is more worrying than two weeks ago.” Coupled with weak technicals, “it looks like we may again break below $60,000.”

• Analyst Michael J. Cramer stated: “Bitcoin is about to drop to mid-$40,000s, which is the next target for decline.”

• Macroeconomist Lynn Alden predicts that Bitcoin may outperform gold over the next three years. “This is often a pendulum effect between the two. If gold prices have risen significantly, the diminishing returns cycle in each period will also be broken in the next,” but hedge fund legend Ray Dalio believes that Bitcoin will never replace gold as a store of value because it still trades like a risk asset, related to tech stocks, whereas gold remains deeply rooted as a reserve asset in the banking system.