Two Interesting AGQ Options Strategies for March 13th Expiration

Traders monitoring ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) now have some interesting derivative opportunities on the horizon. Fresh contracts became available today targeting the March 13th expiration date, and our analysis reveals two particularly compelling strategies worth your attention. Each offers distinct advantages depending on your market outlook and risk tolerance, though both share an appealing element: they can generate attractive returns even if the stock price doesn’t move dramatically in your favor.

Put Option Strategy: Discounted Entry With Compelling Probability

One interesting approach centers on the put contract at the $362.50 strike price, currently bid at $77.80. Investors employing a “sell-to-open” strategy would commit to purchasing AGQ shares at that strike, but the collected premium would effectively lower their cost basis to $284.70 per share—significantly more attractive than the current $374.06 market price. The $362.50 strike sits approximately 3% below today’s trading level, creating an out-of-the-money position that carries notable upsides.

The probability analysis here is particularly interesting: analytical data suggests roughly a 72% chance this contract expires worthless, meaning the seller keeps the premium as pure profit without taking on any stock. That outcome would generate a 21.46% return on the capital committed to the trade, translating to 182.35% annualized—what we call the YieldBoost metric. For investors already planning to buy AGQ shares, this approach essentially means getting paid to wait for a slightly better entry point.

Of course, there remains a 28% probability the stock drops below $362.50, at which point you’d assume ownership. Yet even in this scenario, your true cost basis becomes far more attractive than today’s market rate. Looking at AGQ’s trailing twelve-month trading history reveals the $362.50 strike has historically represented a reasonable support level, though not an absolute floor.

Call Option Strategy: Premium Income With Upside Cap

The other side of this interesting opportunity involves the call contract at the $400.00 strike, commanding a premium of $126.20. An investor purchasing AGQ at today’s price and simultaneously selling this call as a “covered call” position would face a $400.00 assignment level. Combined with the collected premium, this strategy could deliver a 40.67% total return if assigned at March 13th expiration.

The interesting dynamic here involves probability and opportunity cost. Analytics suggest only a 33% chance of assignment, meaning a 67% probability the call expires worthless—leaving you holding shares and keeping the full premium as bonus income. Under that scenario, the premium alone represents 33.74% additional return, or 286.66% annualized through YieldBoost.

The tradeoff, naturally, involves capped upside. Should AGQ rally significantly beyond $400, you’d miss that appreciation above the strike, having committed to sell at that fixed price. At roughly 7% premium to current levels, the $400 strike has historically served as meaningful resistance across the past twelve months. Reviewing fundamentals becomes essential when considering this strategy.

Implied Volatility Context and Risk Considerations

The put contract shows 209% implied volatility, while the call trades at 216% IV—both substantially elevated compared to AGQ’s actual trailing twelve-month volatility of 78%. This disparity suggests premium compression opportunities, where the market is pricing in more dramatic moves than historical patterns typically produce. This elevated volatility environment makes both strategies particularly interesting for income-focused traders.

Neither approach represents passive income without risk. The put seller faces assignment if the stock drops meaningfully. The covered call writer sacrifices unlimited upside. Both strategies require careful monitoring and alignment with your market thesis. Yet for disciplined investors seeking either discounted entry points or premium income within AGQ positions, these two interesting contracts warrant serious evaluation.

For additional options analysis and contract tracking, visit StockOptionsChannel.com where detailed contract data, probability updates, and trading history charting are available.