$SUI #CryptoSurvivalGuide

Multi-timeframe Analysis of the SUI/USDT market and formulate a trade plan using the Gap Retest Strategy. The data shows different technical indicator values, implying the charts are from various timeframes (e.g. 1H, 4H).

In-Depth K-Line & Market Situation Analysis

1. Overall Market Context (Higher Timeframe - Likely 4H/1D):

· Trend: The price is in a clear short-term downtrend. This is confirmed by:
· The Parabolic SAR (SAR) dots are above the price candle on all visible charts, indicating a bearish trend.
· The price is consistently trading at or below the middle Bollinger Band (BOLL), signaling bearish momentum.
· Price Action: The current price (~$0.9861) is near the lower end of the 24-hour range ($0.9621 - $1.0217). It has rejected the 24h high and is moving downwards.
· Volume: Significant 24h volume (8.16M SUI, $8.12M USDT turnover) suggests active interest, but the price decline on high volume (-1.34% to -1.50%) indicates selling pressure is dominant.
· Market Structure: The sequence of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) is visible. The price is struggling to hold above key support levels.

2. Multi-Timeframe Technical Indicator Snapshot:

· Bollinger Bands (BOLL(20,2)): The bands are contracting across timeframes, indicating decreasing volatility and a potential coiling period before a larger move.
· Wider View: Bandwidth from ~0.8560 to 1.6665 shows past high volatility.
· Narrower Views (e.g., 1H, 4H): Bandwidth is tight (e.g., UB:0.9985, LB:0.9827), signaling compression.
· Parabolic SAR: The SAR values (0.7882, 0.9039, 1.0139, 0.9850) act as dynamic resistance levels. For the trend to reverse bullish, the price needs to close decisively above the SAR.
· Key Levels:
· Resistance: The middle Bollinger Band (BOLL) acts as immediate dynamic resistance (~0.9790 - 0.9976). The upper band (UB) is the next key resistance.
· Support: The lower Bollinger Band (LB) is the primary dynamic support (~0.8865 - 0.9827). The 24h Low of $0.9621 is a critical static support.

3. Identifying the "Gap" for the Retest Strategy:
In cryptocurrency markets, a "gap" often refers to a rapid price movement leaving a clear zone with no trading, visible on lower timeframes (like 15m, 1h). Based on the charts:

· There is a noticeable downward move from above the middle BB towards the lower BB.
· A potential "Bearish Gap" or "Runaway Gap" exists between the middle Bollinger Band (resistance) and the current price cluster. The retest zone is the area the price might rally back to test before continuing down. This zone aligns with:
1. The middle Bollinger Band (BOLL).
2. The Parabolic SAR level.
3. The previous support-turned-resistance area (e.g., ~0.9976 - 1.0188 zone from the 1H chart).

Trade Plan: Gap Retest Strategy (Bearish Bias)

Strategy Logic: Wait for a short-term relief rally (retest) into the identified resistance/gap zone to offer a high-probability, risk-defined selling opportunity, aligning with the broader downtrend.

Scenario 1: Retest & Rejection Trade (Primary Plan)

· Trigger/Entry Zone: $0.9970 - $1.0150
· This zone combines the middle BB, the SAR, and the lower edge of the wider gap/resistance area from the 1H/4H charts.
· Confirmation: Look for bearish reversal signals on the 1-hour or 15-minute chart upon reaching the zone (e.g., bearish engulfing pattern, pin bar rejection, RSI divergence, or a loss of momentum).
· Entry: Sell/short upon confirmation within the zone.
· Stop-Loss (SL): Place above the upper boundary of the retest zone and the recent swing high. A prudent SL would be at **$1.0220** (just above the 24h High of $1.0217).
· Take-Profit Targets (TP):
· TP1: $0.9825 (Recent lower BB support from the tightest chart)
· TP2: $0.9620 (24h Low / Major Swing Low)
· TP3: $0.9100 - $0.8865 (Lower BB on the wider view chart)
· Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): Minimum ~1:3 (Entry ~1.000, SL 1.022, TP1 0.982).

Scenario 2: Breakdown Continuation Trade (Alternative)

· Trigger: If the price breaks and closes below the strong support at $0.9620 (24h Low) with increasing volume, without a significant retest.
· Entry: Sell/short on a retest of the $0.9620 level as new resistance, or on a break below it.
· SL: Place above $0.9850 (previous support area).
· TP: Target the next significant support, e.g., $0.9100** or **$0.8560 (LB on the widest view).

Scenario 3: Strategy Invalidation (Bullish Breakout)

· The Gap Retest Strategy is invalidated if the price:
1. Closes above the Parabolic SAR on a 4-hour chart.
2. Breaks and holds above the 4-hour middle Bollinger Band with strong volume.
3. Exceeds the $1.0220 level (24h High).
· Action: Cancel all sell/short plans. A move above $1.0220 could signal a potential trend reversal, requiring a reassessment for long opportunities.

Risk Management & Position Sizing:

· Risk no more than 1-2% of your total trading capital on this single trade.
· Use the defined stop-loss religiously.
· Consider scaling out profits at TP1 and TP2, moving SL to breakeven after TP1 is hit.

Summary:

The SUI/USDT market is in a bearish trend under selling pressure, with volatility compressing. The Gap Retest Strategy aims to capitalize on a probable pullback to resistance (~$0.997-$1.015) to enter short positions with favorable risk/reward, targeting a move towards lower supports ($0.962, $0.910). Always wait for price action confirmation at the entry zone and manage risk with strict stop-losses.