The two hottest topics in recent market discussions are: Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates this month? Can sports tokens be proactively positioned? To be direct—rate cuts this month are highly unlikely, and the real opportunities are hidden in June, September, and the changes in capital flows after the World Cup.

First, let's clarify the matter of rate cuts. There are many claims about "rate cuts this month" floating around, but most of this is market FOMO-driven. The Federal Reserve needs two conditions to cut rates: inflation must truly return to the target range, and there must be clear signs of economic weakening. Currently, the PCE data has eased somewhat but hasn't reached a safe level, and employment data hasn't shown substantial deterioration. Simply put, the Fed is still holding onto its purse strings; without sufficient reasons, they won't loosen policy.

Why are June and September worth paying attention to? This isn't based on intuition but on historical patterns. Looking back at the rate cut at the end of 2024, the market started reacting two months in advance, and mainstream cryptocurrencies experienced a small bull run. Following the same rhythm, the rate cut window in June should begin to brew from April, with the market gradually adjusting expectations; by September's second rate cut, liquidity will be truly unleashed, which is the "gas station" for a crypto bull market. The combined easing effects of these two rate cut cycles are the key drivers supporting the entire industry.