#比特币流动性 Bitcoin's current correction is likely to stay below $80,000 for a long time.

Looking at on-chain data makes it clear—over 6 million bitcoins are stacked above $80,000, which amounts to a market cap of $600 billion. Honestly, everyone knows the current global liquidity situation; why would there be hundreds of billions of dollars coming in to support this level? Even more crazily, to reach new highs, hundreds of millions of dollars need to be poured in every month. This logic simply doesn't add up.

Let's look at something more interesting. The $75,000 level is exactly the low point of the mid-year shakeout and the starting point of the second major upward wave. Theoretically, this should be a zone of concentrated chips. But between $70,000 and $80,000, there's a gap—what does this indicate? It shows that the funds entering later were trapped during the second major upward wave mid-year, with millions of coins held by them.

The weekly chart also tells a story. The bearish divergence has been ongoing for nearly half a year, and recently, there have been 8 consecutive bearish candles. This is no coincidence; it's a coordinated effort by large funds and long-sleeping old chips to unload. They've all thrown out their chips—how could they turn around to rescue those trapped bagholders? They simply wouldn't.

To effectively shake out the chips, the concentration needs to be re-established. Currently, the big holdings are centered around $90,000. A drop to $60,000? That's only a 40% decline. For seasoned players in the circle, this fluctuation isn't much. It must fall below $50,000—at least a 50% drop—and then consolidate sideways, repeatedly testing the bottom. Only then can the shakeout truly be effective.

Previous judgments now look more probable. $BTC This correction, be sure to keep a close eye on it.