The crypto world trading has three levels, and 99% of retail investors are stuck at the first level.

Brothers who see this tweet probably think half of them are on the second layer.

Buddy, you are still on the first level.

I have seen too many people, with a win rate of 70%, lose all their 100 profits in one black swan event.

Why?

Because you only know trash indicators, can't calculate the profit-loss ratio, and don't understand cycle timing.

Today, I will explain the "three levels of trading" in detail. Once you understand it, you can directly ascend from a retail investor to a hunter.

Level One: Signal Layer, Gambler Guessing the Coin

90% of retail investors are trapped at this level and cannot get out.
Typical behavior: checking the market 200 times a day, obsessed with MACD golden crosses, RSI overbought, and K-line dream guidance. Always feels that as long as a magical indicator is found, the win rate can reach 100%.

Core issue: Focus only on entry points, not on defense.

Too many people have a win rate of 70%, but a single black swan event can wipe out all their gains from the previous 100 times. Why?

Because when winning, you take a profit of 5% and run, but when losing, you bear a 50% loss and hold on.

Real case:
In May 2022, LUNA collapsed, and BTC dropped from above 40,000 to 30,000. A friend went all in at 42,000, thinking "there will be a rebound later."

After breaking down without a stop loss, held on all the way to the end of the year, ultimately collapsing mentally and cutting losses around 17,500. Directly lost 60%.

Most of the people in this layer can't last three months. They are not trading, they are donating transaction fees to the exchange.

Level Two: Risk Layer, playing with digital accounting

Only 15% of retail investors can reach this level.
Typical performance: Starting to understand accounting. Before entering the market, instead of asking "How much can I earn?", first ask "How much can I lose if I'm wrong?"

Start setting stop-losses and controlling positions, no longer going all in.

Core methodology: profit and loss ratio management.

Listen carefully to this cruel math problem:
→ A loss of 10% can be recovered with an 11% gain.
→ A loss of 50% requires a 100% increase to break even.
→ A loss of 90%, it must rise by 900% to break even.

Do you see the problem?
A big loss can wipe out 100 small wins.

In November 2022, FTX collapsed, leading to three types of people facing three different outcomes:
A layer (signal layer)
Looking at the technical indicators, it's oversold, so I'm going all in to buy the dip. $FTT exploded, going straight to zero, and now I can't even afford instant noodles or buns.

B Layer (Risk Layer)
Also buy the dip, but strictly control the single loss to ≤ 2% of the principal. Cut losses and exit during a crash, keeping the principal intact.

Three months later, BTC dropped to 16,000, a true bottom, and he kept his bullets ready to buy. Six months later, he cashed out 200,000.

Do you see the gap?

Level Three: Period Layer, the hunter who understands the timing.

Only 5% of retail investors can reach this level.
Typical performance: usually like a lazy person, not placing orders for a month. But once they take action, they heavily invest and hold for the long term, eating the whole fish.

Don't look at the 5-minute chart, focus on macro, liquidity, and the emotional pendulum.

Core methodology: timing is key.

In the eye of the typhoon, even pigs can fly.
During the ebb tide, gold is also sold as if it were stone.
This is the power of cycles.

Real case: Liquidity crisis in August 2024.
During that global asset crash, there were three types of people with three different fates:
Signal Layer: Panic selling, mindset collapsed, swore to never trade again.
Risk Level: Cautious stop-loss, small losses and small gains, capital preservation and safety.
Cycle layer: It has long been judged that this is a golden pit caused by liquidity mismatch. The macro cycle indicates that interest rate cut expectations are just ahead.
So in the blood-soaked chips all over the ground, calmly fill the pockets.

The end?
In three months, the assets increased by an order of magnitude.
The same market, three types of people, three different fates.
The gap is not in intelligence, but in which level you are at.

Having talked about history, let's talk about the present.
Looking at today's market with a three-tier framework:

Signal Layer Perspective
Looking at the 15-minute chart, a golden cross has occurred, go all in.
Ending: Taken away by the needle.

Risk Layer Perspective
The position is good, but the volatility is too high. Try with a light position and set a good stop loss.
Conclusion: small losses and small gains, neither painful nor itchy.

periodic perspective
At the end of the year, funds are tight, and the policy expectations for next year have not materialized, making the risk-reward ratio less appealing.
Strategy: Stay out of the market during Christmas and wait for certainty in the first quarter of next year.

Remember one thing: better to miss out than to make a mistake.
It's not embarrassing to spend cash during Christmas.

P.S. Those who understand the three-layer framework, don't ask KOL "Should I enter the market now?" anymore.

You are the answer.