December 19｜BTC Market Comprehensive Analysis

Key Stage of Bull-Bear Battle Before Major Events

📌 Market Overview

As of December 19, 04:08,
BTC is trading at $85,015.

On the evening of December 18, after the US CPI data was released, BTC quickly surged from around 85,260, reaching a high of $89,449, but failed to stabilize at the high level and subsequently declined sharply.

👉 This was a tentative bullish attempt, but selling pressure above remains strong, and the signs of a failed rebound are quite evident.

🔍 The Three Main Market Drivers Currently

1️⃣ Macro Event Suppression (Core Variable)
The Bank of Japan interest rate decision will be announced this morning.
The market generally expects a possibility of rate hikes, which, if implemented, could increase the risk of yen arbitrage capital flowing back.
Historical experience shows:

During the Bank of Japan's rate hike cycles, BTC has experienced approximately 20% phased adjustments.

2️⃣ Weak Technical Structure

Price has broken through multiple short-term key support levels.

The 4-hour rebound was hindered by moving average systems.

The current structure remains bearish, and bulls have not yet regained control of the trend.

3️⃣ Capital Pressure

Bitcoin spot ETF continues to see net outflows.

Institutional willingness to support at current price ranges is weak.

The rebound lacks sustained incremental capital support.

📊 Mid-term Perspective and Key Price Levels
🔹 Potential Value Zones (Gradual Approach)

If macroeconomic negative news triggers further correction, focus on:

$78,000 – $80,000

$70,000 – $75,000

On-chain data indicates:
Around $81,300 is the “true market average.”

If broken and held below, selling pressure may intensify.

If stabilized, a phase bottom could form.

🔹 Critical Resistance for Bulls to Re-Strengthen

$98,100: Key mid-term resistance.

A successful breakout and stabilization would mean the mid-term upward structure is restarting.

⚠️ Core Trading Reminder

Event-driven periods = high volatility periods.

Recommendations:

Light positions

Strict stop-loss

Avoid high leverage chasing gains and cutting losses

In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network has been huge, once again confirming:

Market is not afraid of volatility; it fears out-of-control positions.

🧭 In summary

In the short term, the direction is dominated by the Bank of Japan decision, and the trend is still unclear.
Before signals are confirmed, controlling risk, conserving bullets, and being patient may be more important than frequent trading. $BTC