Why CZ predicts that the four-year cycle may be gone, or may turn into a supercycle like the US stock market

Objectively speaking, the Bitcoin market structure has undergone a "historic change"—some irreversible factors are pushing the "four-year halving cycle" toward a longer and larger supercycle structure.

1. Institutional Era = Cycle is "Extended and Amplified"
In the past, the cycle was dominated by:
Retail sentiment
Miner selling pressure
Algorithmic halving supply changes

But now it's completely different:
ETF funds are "continuously flowing in," not cyclical FOMO
ETFs are mechanical buying + automatic DCA + long-term holding
→ Unlike retail investors who have 1 year of climax, 1 year of ebb.
This turns the bull market from a short "pulse-like explosion" into a long-lasting buy pressure structure.

Halving selling pressure decreases + ETF buying pressure increases = an increasingly smooth upward curve
Miner selling pressure is at a historical low, while institutional buying pressure is at a historical high.
The four-year cycle was originally driven by supply shocks, but now supply shocks are less important.

In other words: the traditional four-year cycle is being dissipated and weakened

2. The Bitcoin cycle is starting to follow the "macro business cycle" instead of the four-year rhythm
Raoul Pal's 5-year cycle logic points out that BTC = liquidity asset, essentially following the ISM business cycle.
And 2020–2025 is a very critical period:
2022–2023: QT, rate hikes → BTC stagnates
2024–2025: Gradually entering rate cuts, end of QT, and QE expectations → BTC expands
2026: Fiscal stimulus + risk appetite explosion window (supercycle high point)
In other words, the Bitcoin cycle is starting to shift from "mining math-driven" to "global liquidity-driven".
When the driving force changes, the cycle naturally changes.

Four years is no longer the dominant factor.
Global liquidity becomes the new main rhythm.
Therefore, there is the argument that "it may become a supercycle."

3. Halving effect weakens → increasingly difficult to trigger a traditional 1-year surge
One of the most important facts:
After each halving, the proportion of new Bitcoin reduction to total supply is decreasing.

In other words:
2012 halving: huge supply shock → super bull
2016 halving: shock significantly reduced
2020 halving: shock covered by QE
2024 halving: almost completely absorbed by ETF inflows
After the halving effect is diluted, the cycle is no longer "leap-like," but "continuous."

This is called the Supercycle Transition Stage.

4. After BTC becomes a "macro asset," its cycle is more like gold or the Nasdaq, not altcoins

When BTC is included in:
BlackRock
Fidelity
Vanguard
Pension Funds
Sovereign Wealth Funds

and other giants' portfolios, its behavioral model is no longer "speculative."

It's more like: the Nasdaq, gold, real estate indexes
These assets have a common feature:
Not cyclical, only trending.
Bull and bear markets are not four years—they are macro-determined liquidity cycles (usually 4–5 years per round).
BTC is integrating into this system.
So it is highly likely that cycles will be extended, weakened, or even disappear.

5. On-chain long-term holder ratio keeps hitting new highs → cycle is "prolonged"
LTH (long-term holders) ratio keeps hitting new highs, reaching 70%+.
This is the most important underlying structural change of the supercycle:
Supply is less liquid
Bull market tops appear later
Bottoms are higher
Downturns are shallower
This is a "high-level consolidation → longer bull market" structure.

Not the old pattern of:
Skyrocketing → Plummeting → Starting over

But: Rising → Mid-term correction → Rising again → Another mid-term correction → Lasting 3–4 years
This is the shape of the supercycle.

So what CZ actually means is:
Halving no longer determines market rhythm; global liquidity and institutional structure decide everything.
This structure means:
The bull market will not explode and then crash within a year as before
It may be a prolonged 3–5 year "long bull + mid-term corrections"

The next real major top is more likely to appear in 2026

In summary (super critical):
Bitcoin is not disappearing from the four-year cycle, but is upgrading to a larger cycle driven by the "global financial structure"—the supercycle.

What CZ sees is the objective structural change in the overall market, leading to his supercycle prediction.