December Gold, Crude Oil, and Silver Strategy Analysis: Follow the Trend—Avoiding Pitfalls Is Key

Recently, many friends have asked me how to trade the three major commodities: gold, crude oil, and silver. After all, the Fed’s interest rate meeting is just around the corner, market volatility is increasingly erratic, it’s easy to lose money by chasing the crowd, but missing out is also a pity. Today, I’ll break down the current market logic and practical strategies in plain language, so even beginners can understand.

Let’s start with gold. The current market is a bit “grinding,” but the direction is clear. Last Friday, spot gold rose 0.36%, fluctuating near $4,223/oz, mainly because everyone is waiting for clear signals from the Fed’s December meeting and is hesitant to act. The core logic is simple: the credibility of the US dollar is weakening, US fiscal deficits are high, and global central banks are frantically buying gold for hedging—China’s central bank has increased holdings by over 2,300 tons consecutively. This is the key to long-term gold price support. Technically, after breaking out of a triangle pattern, gold is consolidating sideways. The major resistance is at $4,260; if it breaks through, it could head to $4,300 or even new historical highs. Support is at the $4,170-$4,160 range—if it falls below, watch out for a correction. There’s no need to chase highs; short-term, you can go short if it rebounds to the $4,235-$4,255 range, and go long if it pulls back to $4,190-$4,170. For the medium- and long-term, it’s still best to buy in batches on dips. After all, the big trend is toward rate cuts, and gold’s “credit hedge” function will only become more attractive.

Next, let’s talk about crude oil. Right now, the macro environment is “slightly bullish, but supply is lacking.” Last Friday, WTI crude rose to $59.67/barrel, mainly because the market is betting that Fed rate cuts will boost demand, and geopolitical tensions are restricting supply. But there’s a risk: EIA inventories unexpectedly increased, and OPEC+ production cut compliance is only 82%, so supply pressures haven’t fully eased. Technically, on the daily chart, it’s still testing strong support at $56; as long as it doesn’t break below, there’s room for a medium-term rebound. In the short term, it’s fluctuating between $59 and $62.5, with moving averages spreading upward and momentum strengthening. The main strategy is “buy the dip”—enter long positions if it pulls back to $58-$59, targeting $61.5-$62.5. If it rebounds above $62.5 but can’t break through, you can try a small short position, but make sure to set a stop loss—don’t get stopped out by unexpected geopolitical news.

Finally, silver—this one is definitely the “dark horse,” surging even more than gold! As of December 8, silver has broken above $56/oz, up 18% this month, driven by both “industrial and financial” factors. On the industrial side, photovoltaic installations are up 35% year-on-year, silver demand for AI servers is also surging, and the supply-demand gap is widening. On the financial side, silver’s volatility is twice that of gold, and with rate cut expectations, funds are speculating on its high elasticity. Currently, COMEX non-commercial net long positions in silver are at a near three-year high. Technically, silver has already reached record highs, with short-term support at $54-$55 (near the 20-day moving average) and a target of $60. Strategy-wise, you can be a bit bolder—buy in batches if it pulls back to $54-$55, using the main SHFE silver contract or silver ET