A Chengjie Diary A combines market trends and core events to supplement Mr. Chengjie's views with key validations and optimization suggestions, helping you grasp the market more accurately:

I. Core View Reinforcement: Hawk-Dove Game + Data Vacuum Defines the Range

- The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has reached 87%-90%. The market focus is indeed on "hawkish vs. dovish tendencies": hawks may maintain the dot plot indicating only two cuts by 2026 and see dissenting votes (such as Musalem and Schmid), while doves may hint at continued easing next year.
- Data vacuum period supports range-bound oscillation: Before the release of the major nonfarm payroll data on December 16 and CPI on December 18, the market is reluctant to take aggressive positions. The 4170-4250 range is highly effective, and the $4,000 level is a strong medium- to long-term support.
- Expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike are rising (probability at 89%): If the hike is moderate as expected (not exceeding 0.75%), it is actually bullish for gold; only guidance for consecutive hikes would be suppressive. Pay close attention to the statement at the December 19 meeting.

II. Strategy Optimization and Risk Warning

- Original strategy fit: Long above 4180, stop loss at 4170 (close to support), target 4250-4280 (covering resistance range), aligns with current range-bound logic and is executable.
- Additional countermeasures:
1. If the Fed unexpectedly releases dovish signals (such as indicating multiple rate cuts next year), targets can be raised to 4300-4400, and stop loss moved up to 4200;
2. If hawkishness exceeds expectations (such as more than two dissenting votes plus emphasis on sticky inflation), gold price may test 4150-4100. Pause longs if 4170 support is broken and stay on the sidelines until data is released.
- Additional risk points: Escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions (e.g., Lebanon situation intensifies) may trigger safe-haven buying and cause an early breakout of the range—leave room to chase the upside.

III. Key Time Node Monitoring Guide

1. December 9-10: FOMC meeting (focus on press conference signals, dot plot, and dissenting votes);
2. December 16: US November Nonfarm Payrolls (weak employment will strengthen rate cut expectations, bullish for gold);
3. December 18: US November CPI (a decline in inflation could be double bullish for gold);
4. December 19: Bank of Japan policy meeting (focus on whether consecutive rate hikes are hinted at).