Yili Hua, founder of Liquid Capital, recently made a noteworthy observation on social media: the ongoing 60-day crypto market bear run may be nearing a turning point. BTC has returned to the $93,000 range, BCH has hit new recent highs, and although ETH has been relatively weak, multiple positive factors—such as SEC personnel changes and expectations of Fed rate cuts—are gradually materializing.

The causes of this bear market are actually not complicated. Yili Hua points out that the crash triggered by the "1011" incident, the drying up of market liquidity, the resonance of the four-year cycle rule, combined with external shocks like the Bank of Japan's rate hike and the US government shutdown, have led to a concentrated outbreak of multiple bearish factors. But now the situation has changed—these negative factors have been largely digested, and market sentiment is shifting from panic to wait-and-see.

Historically, the cyclical nature of the crypto market is very clear. Retail investors commonly fall into a fatal trap: panic selling in bear markets and FOMO buying in bull markets. This contrarian behavior causes most people to sell at cycle bottoms and buy at the top. Institutional money, on the other hand, often does the opposite, quietly accumulating positions during market downturns and waiting for the convergence of policy and technical signals.

Subtle changes are currently taking place in the market environment. Expectations of Fed rate cuts are rising, and crypto regulatory policies are becoming clearer. These two factors form a potential dual catalyst. Policy signals have already appeared, but most retail investors are still hesitating about entering the market, while smart money has already finished positioning.

So how should ordinary investors respond?

First, core asset allocation is fundamental. BTC and ETH, as market benchmarks, are worth holding long-term in any cycle, avoiding the extra costs and emotional swings of frequent trading.

Second, policy trends are more important than technical indicators. The SEC's regulatory stance and the Fed's monetary policy—these macro variables often have a greater impact on the market than short-term price fluctuations.

Lastly, patience is the rarest investment quality. Market cycles will not change because of individual will; real profits come from understanding the patterns and seizing the right timing. Bear markets are a litmus test for true investors—only those who can endure the cycle have a chance to enjoy the gains of a bull market.

Remember this: moments of panic often breed opportunity; only rational analysis can help you stay grounded amid volatility.