#数字货币市场回调 I've been watching $ETH's price action for a few days and wanted to jot down some observations.

First, the big picture—starting from the sharp drop in mid-November last year, which bottomed out around 2,716 at its worst. Back then, many were calling for a break below 2,500. But what happened? Over the past two weeks, ETH bounced right back, rallying over $300 from the bottom—a gain of more than 11%. It's now back above the psychological barrier at 3,000.

From a technical perspective, this rebound falls within the 38.2%-50% retracement zone of the previous downtrend (roughly between 2,950 and 3,150), which is a textbook correction level.

**Key price levels to watch:**

On the downside: 2,950-3,000 is supported by the recent rebound platform and the MA99; below that, 2,840-2,860 is the previous low combined with a high-volume zone; if that breaks, the previous low at 2,716 is the last line of defense—if that's lost, the trend needs to be reassessed.

On the upside: Immediate resistance is at 3,150-3,180 (50% retracement + previous consolidation area), and holding above this is crucial; then 3,300-3,350 may see pressure from the MA200; further out, 3,500-3,600 is a tough level.

**A few signals from the indicators:**

Daily moving averages are starting to tangle—MA7 has already been broken, and MA25 and MA99 are about to form a golden cross, signaling a bullish realignment in progress. Volume spiked yesterday—the highest in weeks—and the rally on strong volume makes the move more credible. The MACD lines have crossed bullishly below the zero line, red bars are expanding, and the bullish signal is clear. RSI is now at 66, having quickly rebounded from oversold (below 30) but not yet hitting the overbought line at 70, so there's theoretically still some room. The KDJ’s K line continued to rise after the golden cross, with a J value at 76—high, but not extreme. On the Bollinger Bands, price jumped from the lower band to above the middle band—a classic rebound pattern.

The last three daily candles form a textbook “Three White Soldiers,” with yesterday's strong, high-volume bullish candle standing out. Today closed bullish again, showing the bulls are still in control. There are no signs of stalling or any major bearish candle, so the short-term atmosphere remains positive.

**Outlook:**

In the short term (within a week), ETH will most likely keep pushing toward the 3,150-3,180 area. If it breaks out on strong volume and holds, a move toward 3,300-3,500 is within reach.

In the mid-term (two to four weeks), it comes down to market dynamics: The bullish scenario is to hold above 3,180 and build a daily-level bottom structure (W-bottom or triple bottom), re-entering an uptrend with targets at 3,600 or even 4,000+. The bearish scenario is repeated upper wicks and stalling at 3,150-3,180, followed by a break below 3,000, which would signal a risk of retesting the bottom or even making new lows.

Right now, bulls and bears are locked in a tug-of-war. Watch 3,150-3,180 closely—whether it breaks or holds will set the tone for what's next.