Recently, a very magical phenomenon has appeared in the crypto world - the price movement of Bitcoin is almost completely synchronized with the Exchange Rate of the Japanese Yen!
On December 2, German financial analyst Holger released a significant observation: the fluctuations of BTC are now highly correlated with the rise and fall of the Japanese yen, and this is no coincidence.
The root of this can be traced back to Japan's monetary policy. For the past decade or so, a popular strategy in the global capital markets has been the yen carry trade. In simple terms, during Japan's zero interest rate era, institutions borrowed yen at extremely low costs, converted them into dollars, and invested in high-yield assets, with Bitcoin and tech stocks being popular targets. Just how exaggerated is the scale of this operation? Conservative estimates suggest it exceeds $30 trillion, and it has effectively become an invisible force driving up the crypto market.
But this year the situation has changed. The Bank of Japan has started raising interest rates, causing the cost of borrowing to rise sharply, and the arbitrage space has been compressed. Those leveraged funds that relied on low-interest yen now have to close their positions and withdraw. When the yen appreciates, it means that these funds are flowing back, and Bitcoin, as an important asset to absorb these funds, naturally fluctuates accordingly.
You see, recently BTC has retreated from $90,000 to $83,000, and the reason behind this is actually the adjustment of this wave of funds. The chain reaction of global monetary policies cannot escape the crypto market.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
21 Likes
Reward
21
8
Repost
Share
Comment
0/400
notSatoshi1971
· 12-04 02:00
Oh no, $3 trillion in phantom funds disappeared just like that, and we retail investors can only get slaughtered along with it.
View OriginalReply0
HodlAndChill
· 12-03 00:23
Wow, 30 trillion dollars of ghost funds, no wonder BTC is so synchronized with the yen.
View OriginalReply0
TokenomicsTrapper
· 12-02 05:51
lol okay so basically the entire btc pump was just japanese housewives doing carry trades... called this months ago, the correlation is literally textbook greater fool theory waiting to implode. watching those liquidations like netflix rn, absolutely predictable dump on schedule when jpy tightens. actually if you read the BoJ policy statements, this was inevitable months back
Reply0
GhostChainLoyalist
· 12-02 05:51
Wow, a $30 trillion invisible hand is manipulating? The crypto world is really not as free as we think.
View OriginalReply0
staking_gramps
· 12-02 05:51
Wow, a 30 trillion yen Arbitrage trap Rug Pull? No wonder BTC is so volatile, where's the bull run that was promised?
View OriginalReply0
bridge_anxiety
· 12-02 05:51
What the hell, a 30 trillion yen Arbitrage trap is about to run? No wonder BTC is being smashed.
View OriginalReply0
DuskSurfer
· 12-02 05:42
Wow, a hidden force of 30 trillion dollars? No wonder things have been so surreal lately.
Recently, a very magical phenomenon has appeared in the crypto world - the price movement of Bitcoin is almost completely synchronized with the Exchange Rate of the Japanese Yen!
On December 2, German financial analyst Holger released a significant observation: the fluctuations of BTC are now highly correlated with the rise and fall of the Japanese yen, and this is no coincidence.
The root of this can be traced back to Japan's monetary policy. For the past decade or so, a popular strategy in the global capital markets has been the yen carry trade. In simple terms, during Japan's zero interest rate era, institutions borrowed yen at extremely low costs, converted them into dollars, and invested in high-yield assets, with Bitcoin and tech stocks being popular targets. Just how exaggerated is the scale of this operation? Conservative estimates suggest it exceeds $30 trillion, and it has effectively become an invisible force driving up the crypto market.
But this year the situation has changed. The Bank of Japan has started raising interest rates, causing the cost of borrowing to rise sharply, and the arbitrage space has been compressed. Those leveraged funds that relied on low-interest yen now have to close their positions and withdraw. When the yen appreciates, it means that these funds are flowing back, and Bitcoin, as an important asset to absorb these funds, naturally fluctuates accordingly.
You see, recently BTC has retreated from $90,000 to $83,000, and the reason behind this is actually the adjustment of this wave of funds. The chain reaction of global monetary policies cannot escape the crypto market.