Bitcoin broke through the $86,000 mark today, and at first, it was thought to be just a routine profit pullback. But when the number 76% came up, things started to look a bit different—if the Bank of Japan really takes action in December as the market expects, it could trigger more than just a simple price adjustment.

The probability of interest rate hike bets in the futures market has now risen to 76%. The recent statements from the Governor of the Bank of Japan have been quite straightforward, essentially giving a heads-up in advance. The key issue is: this interest rate hike may burst a giant bubble that has been running for many years.

In the past decade, the ultra-low interest rate of the yen has become the "ATM" for global arbitrage funds. The operation logic is simple—borrow yen at near-zero cost, then exchange it for dollars to invest in high-yield targets such as US stocks and cryptocurrencies. According to estimates from some institutions, the outstanding scale of such carry trades may have surpassed $14 trillion.

Once interest rates are raised, the rules of the game become instantly invalid. The soaring cost of borrowing will force funds to flow back quickly: selling off Bitcoin and stock assets, converting back to yen to repay debts. Such a large-scale exit of funds will inevitably lead to a sharp contraction in market liquidity. As the asset class with the highest risk appetite, cryptocurrencies often bear the brunt.

The market reaction has begun to show. Bitcoin hit a low near 85600 USD, and mainstream coins are generally under pressure. In the past 24 hours, the liquidation amount of long positions exceeded 400 million USD. Looking at a longer time frame, since the peak in November, the pullback of BTC has exceeded 20%, and the flow of ETF funds continues to deteriorate.

This round of decline may just be an appetizer. The real test may come when the policies are implemented in December.